Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:46:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
2C 0x2cbf…3dd4 politics 137 markets active 1h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$13 (+0%) realized +$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate10%13W / 123L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$284per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$3
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$18
politics 40% −$19
sports 5% +$49
economics 4% −$1
crypto 3% −$1
tech 2% −$1
world 2% −$1
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 17 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 118 -1.3% -10.7% 8% 6% -9.5%
all 136 -1.9% -11.3% 10% 7% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 7% -9.5%
10% -19.8% 7% -18.2%
15% -27.5% 4% -26.1%
20% -34.6% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$1 · ×9.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses13 / 123
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)136 / 137
History coverage114d
Avg bet$284
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 136 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $28 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $270 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 21 $304 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $339 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $26 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $325 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 14 $793 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $517 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $25 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 09 $41 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $31 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 03 $246 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $31 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $238 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $274 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $869 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $252 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $238 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $297 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 21 $585 −$1 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $295 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $305 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $248 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $301 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $553 −$1 -0%
Will Claudia López win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 13 $304 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $251 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 12 $239 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 12 $864 −$1 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $488 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $71 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $214 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $250 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $183 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $207 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $245 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $1,171 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $308 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $511 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $258 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $314 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $272 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $291 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $279 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $303 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $257 $0 -0%
Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election Apr 24 $291 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 24 $251 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? Apr 22 $222 $0 -0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 22 $284 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $25 1h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $28 1h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $28 6h
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $40 6h
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $40 16h
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $42 18h
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $42 25h
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $32 38h
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $32 2d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $26 2d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $26 6d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $42 6d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $42 7d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $26 7d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $26 8d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $29 9d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $29 10d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $43 10d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $43 11d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $25 11d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $25 12d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $41 12d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $41 13d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $31 15d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $31 16d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $32 18d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $32 20d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $31 20d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 21d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $26 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.99 · official $24.99 (match) · 413 history records