Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:08:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
2C 0x2cbe…3d61 other 100 markets active 1h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$32 (-0%) realized −$32 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate11%11W / 88L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$258per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$12
politics 34% −$13
sports 10% −$5
crypto 6% −$2
world 2% −$1
economics 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 83 +4.3% -5.6% 6% 6% -9.6%
all 99 +2.0% -7.7% 11% 10% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 10% -9.6%
10% -16.5% 9% -18.3%
15% -24.6% 6% -26.2%
20% -32.0% 4% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$2 · ×6.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses11 / 88
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)99 / 100
History coverage116d
Avg bet$258
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 99 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 99¢ $47 $47 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $40 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $32 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $230 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 28 $285 −$1 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 26 $286 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $300 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $263 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $221 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $758 −$1 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $251 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $311 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $457 −$1 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $535 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $273 $0 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 30 $219 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $232 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $640 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $295 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 28 $282 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 27 $237 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Apr 27 $217 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio Apr 27 $276 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $545 −$1 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 26 $224 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 26 $298 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 26 $250 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $524 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $279 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 21 $535 −$1 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $261 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $268 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 19 $276 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $307 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $303 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $301 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $249 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? Apr 16 $466 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $299 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 15 $519 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $229 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 15 $222 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $306 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $572 −$1 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $723 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $497 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $225 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 12 $258 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 12 $481 −$4 -1%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $252 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 10 $258 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $47 1h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $40 1h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $40 6d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $32 7d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $32 9d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $230 19d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $230 24d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $284 24d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $285 25d
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $286 25d
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $286 30d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $300 30d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $300 31d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $263 39d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $263 45d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $221 45d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $221 46d
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $261 46d
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $261 47d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $251 47d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $251 49d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $311 49d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $311 49d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $218 50d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $218 50d
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $291 51d
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $291 51d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $273 51d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $273 51d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $219 52d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.98 · official $46.98 (match) · 276 history records