Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:35:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2C
0x2cba…3c9f
other · 43 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$12 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$13 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$40
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses6 / 36
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage628d
Avg bet$115
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%
Chart Positions 1 History 42 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $14 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $12 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $12 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? Jun 05 $14 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.60 in May? Jun 05 $34 $0 +0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $10 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 27 $13 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $12 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $10 $0 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 22 $10 +$9 +83%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 21 $13 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $73 $0 -0%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins May 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $62 $0 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $62 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $64 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $66 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $63 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $62 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $67 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $67 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $134 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Apr 23 $61 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $67 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win the televote for Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $66 $0 -0%
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next Apr 22 $64 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 19 $67 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $62 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? Apr 10 $6 $0 +1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 06 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Feb 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 08 $10 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 18 $31 −$1 -2%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 12 $11 $0 -1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 01 $17 $0 -2%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 11 $23 $0 -1%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Feb 12 $16 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 10 $212 −$3 -2%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Oct 31 $266 −$2 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 28 $1,663 −$4 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 27 $1,340 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 72% −$12
other 21% −$2
crypto 2% $0
sports 1% +$1
world 1% $0
tech 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $40 1h
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $14 25h
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $14 27h
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $12 6d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $12 6d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $12 7d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $12 8d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $10 9d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $10 9d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $14 17d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $13 18d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $13 18d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $12 19d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $12 19d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 22d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 22d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL No 100¢ $13 23d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 100¢ $13 23d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 54¢ $10 24d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 24d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 25d
Will XRP reach $2.60 in May? BUY No 100¢ $34 26d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 47¢ $6 29d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $62 31d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $62 31d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $62 33d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $62 34d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $64 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 14 -1.3% -10.7% 21% 7% -8.7%
≤90d 30 -0.6% -10.1% 13% 3% -9.4%
all 42 -0.7% -10.2% 14% 2% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 2% -9.8%
10% -18.8% 2% -18.4%
15% -26.6% 2% -26.3%
20% -33.8% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.02 · official $40.02 (match) · 284 history records