Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:24:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
2C 0x2cb7…93c7 crypto 535 markets active 1h ago coverage 342d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,248 (+9%) realized +$1,257 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate45%236W / 285L
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$867now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$56
7 days−$58
14 days+$13
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 67% +$1,104
world 12% −$268
finance 10% +$256
other 7% +$10
politics 2% +$53
sports 1% −$23
tech 0% −$12
culture 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -3.3% -12.5% 50% 30% -28.9%
≤30d 24 -2.8% -12.0% 42% 33% -16.0%
≤90d 103 -4.2% -13.3% 51% 45% -2.8%
all 521 -2.3% -11.6% 45% 40% -1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 40% -1.4%
10% -20.1% 35% -10.9%
15% -27.8% 29% -19.5%
20% -34.9% 25% -27.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$14 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

342d coverage
Net worth$867
Realized+$1,257
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses236 / 285
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions14
Markets (closed)521 / 535
History coverage342d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 521 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 46¢ 38¢ $225 $188 −$37 (-16%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? No 68¢ 100¢ $100 $147 +$47 (+47%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? No 45¢ 100¢ $50 $111 +$61 (+122%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 85¢ 92¢ $100 $108 +$8 (+8%)
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in June? No 54¢ 89¢ $60 $100 +$40 (+66%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 26¢ $50 $76 +$26 (+53%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $50 $40 −$10 (-20%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 11¢ $50 $36 −$14 (-27%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $35 $28 −$7 (-19%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 20¢ $15 $20 +$5 (+31%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 47¢ 14¢ $25 $8 −$17 (-69%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 90¢ 96¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 54¢ 1¢ $113 $1 −$111 (-99%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 42 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 29 $10 +$25 +250%
Germany vs. Paraguay: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? Jun 29 $12 −$12 -98%
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Jun 29 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 29 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 29 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $10 +$3 +27%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 26 $17 +$31 +178%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $45 −$45 -99%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 $0 +2%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $100 +$10 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $23 +$15 +63%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $6 −$6 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 +$4 +213%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $40 +$27 +67%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 +$10 +474%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$50 +50%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET May 30 $2 −$2 -95%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 29 $201 +$39 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -94%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $318 −$110 -34%
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30? May 12 $20 +$22 +108%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 4-10? May 11 $51 +$13 +25%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $10 +$42 +414%
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 May 4-10? May 09 $7 −$7 -94%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 08 $20 +$41 +203%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April? May 01 $38 +$15 +40%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? May 01 $40 +$25 +62%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? May 01 $100 +$21 +21%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April? May 01 $150 +$66 +44%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? Apr 20 $14 −$13 -99%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 April 13-19? Apr 20 $20 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Apr 19 $15 −$14 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Apr 19 $9 −$8 -93%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 19 $50 −$50 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Apr 19 $5 −$5 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Apr 19 $35 −$35 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 19 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? BUY No 14¢ $2 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 66¢ $40 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? BUY No 47¢ $3 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? BUY No 45¢ $7 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 49¢ $20 2h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 2h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 33h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 33h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 33h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 33h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 53¢ $30 3d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 26¢ $15 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 3d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in June? BUY No 35¢ $10 3d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in June? BUY No 60¢ $51 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 6d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $30 6d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 60¢ $11 7d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 61¢ $12 7d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 7d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 7d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $36 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $866.62 · official $866.63 (match) · 1518 history records