Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T01:32:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2C 0x2cb4…b5f3 crypto 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$93 (-21%) realized −$93 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate47%7W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day35.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$93
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-26.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -19.1% -26.8% 47% 40% -29.8%
≤30d 15 -19.1% -26.8% 47% 40% -29.8%
≤90d 15 -19.1% -26.8% 47% 40% -29.8%
all 15 -19.1% -26.8% 47% 40% -29.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.8% 40% -29.8%
10% ← realistic here -33.8% 40% -36.5%
15% -40.2% 33% -42.7%
20% -46.1% 20% -48.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 62% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$21 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$93
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses7 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage1d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day35.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 27 $18 −$17 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 27 $9 +$8 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 27 $85 −$85 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 27 $83 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 27 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 27 $63 +$31 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 27 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 27 $35 +$10 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 27 $39 +$16 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 26 $21 −$5 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 26 $9 −$3 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 26 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 26 $8 +$4 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 26 $2 +$4 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 26 $7 −$6 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $18 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $18 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $9 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $85 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $55 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $83 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Up 26¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $85 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Down 31¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Up 29¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Down 26¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $16 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 43 history records