Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:54:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
2C 0x2cb1…8bfb sports 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 459d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$310 (+2%) realized +$313 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate77%34W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$293per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$247now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$90
7 days+$257
14 days+$214
30 days+$245
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 38% −$1,303
other 29% +$712
sports 28% +$409
economics 4% +$402
culture 0% +$79
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)+2.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +82.0% +64.7% 100% 100% +63.6%
≤30d 5 +27.7% +15.5% 80% 80% +12.7%
≤90d 6 +31.7% +19.1% 83% 83% +14.9%
all 44 +12.9% +2.1% 77% 64% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.1% 64% -7.5%
10% -7.6% 48% -16.3%
15% -16.6% 36% -24.4%
20% -24.7% 30% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% too few recent
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +19% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$86 vs −$262 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

459d coverage
Net worth$247
Realized+$313
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses34 / 10
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)44 / 46
History coverage459d
Avg bet$293
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Uruguay 44¢ 42¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $166 +$90 +55%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $152 +$167 +109%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $214 −$212 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $303 +$168 +55%
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the May 27 $161 +$31 +19%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 19 $100 +$51 +51%
Will Anthony Joshua win his boxing match against Jake Paul? Dec 21 $150 +$20 +14%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-12-13? Dec 15 $100 +$41 +41%
Will Oscar Piastri finish third in the 2025 F1 Drivers Championship? Dec 08 $60 +$79 +132%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 07 $450 −$5 -1%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-11-30? Nov 30 $60 +$47 +79%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-08? Nov 08 $120 −$120 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) Oct 30 $360 +$105 +29%
LoL: 100 Thieves vs T1 (BO3) Oct 29 $252 +$19 +7%
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster - Game 1 Winner Oct 29 $100 +$64 +64%
LoL: T1 vs Movistar KOI (BO3) Oct 25 $270 +$20 +7%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-10-18? Oct 18 $120 +$80 +66%
LoL: T1 vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO1) Oct 16 $150 −$150 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Team Secret Whales (BO1) Oct 16 $300 +$78 +26%
LoL: Gen.G vs PSG Talon (BO1) Oct 15 $400 +$30 +8%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO1) Oct 15 $150 +$88 +59%
Eagles vs. Giants Oct 10 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-10-05? Oct 05 $100 +$54 +54%
Will George Russell win the 2025 F1 Singapore Grand Prix? Oct 05 $260 +$62 +24%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 25 $184 +$81 +44%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix? Sep 25 $500 +$26 +5%
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? Sep 21 $301 +$218 +72%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? Aug 12 $300 +$184 +62%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 British Grand Prix? Jul 07 $300 +$38 +13%
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 British Grand Prix? Jul 07 $230 +$118 +52%
MSI Playoffs: T1 vs. Flying Oyster Jul 04 $300 +$30 +10%
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Jul 03 $300 +$57 +19%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 19 $400 +$66 +16%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $1,000 +$132 +13%
Will Lee Jun-seok win between 8% and 11% of the vote in the South Kore Jun 03 $150 −$128 -86%
Will Lee Jun-seok win between 5% and 8% of the vote in the South Korea Jun 03 $300 −$268 -89%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 55-60% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 03 $344 +$106 +31%
Rockets vs. Clippers Apr 11 $312 +$32 +10%
Grizzlies vs. Pistons Apr 06 $40 −$40 -100%
Mavericks vs. Clippers Apr 06 $150 +$45 +30%
Mavericks vs. Clippers Apr 05 $200 +$44 +22%
Yoon out as president of South Korea before May? Apr 04 $1,183 +$452 +38%
Yoon out as president of South Korea before April? Mar 28 $1,796 −$1,579 -88%
Yoon out as president of South Korea in 2025? Mar 26 $357 −$17 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 44¢ $51 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $202 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $166 29h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $152 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $214 7d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 99¢ $471 7d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $303 7d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 100¢ $151 32d
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the BUY No 84¢ $161 110d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 66¢ $100 110d
Will Anthony Joshua win his boxing match against Jake Paul? BUY Yes 88¢ $150 183d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-12-13? BUY Yes 71¢ $100 190d
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL Yes 76¢ $196 196d
Will Liverpool win on 2025-11-30? BUY Yes 56¢ $60 203d
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY Yes 77¢ $200 210d
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL Yes 79¢ $123 210d
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL Yes 80¢ $125 210d
Will Oscar Piastri finish third in the 2025 F1 Drivers Championship? BUY Yes 43¢ $60 221d
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY Yes 80¢ $250 221d
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-08? BUY Yes 65¢ $120 225d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) SELL Top Esports 100¢ $348 234d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) BUY Top Esports 78¢ $160 234d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) BUY Top Esports 70¢ $100 234d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) SELL Top Esports 82¢ $117 234d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) BUY Top Esports 70¢ $100 234d
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster - Game 1 Winner SELL KT Rolster 100¢ $164 235d
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster 61¢ $100 235d
LoL: T1 vs Movistar KOI (BO3) SELL T1 100¢ $290 239d
LoL: T1 vs Movistar KOI (BO3) BUY T1 93¢ $270 239d
LoL: 100 Thieves vs T1 (BO3) SELL T1 100¢ $270 240d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $246.89 · official $246.89 (match) · 112 history records