Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T02:22:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2C 0x2cb0…8b70 world 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 470d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate51%24W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$7
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 70% +$10
other 13% +$1
sports 4% +$1
economics 3% $0
politics 3% −$11
crypto 2% $0
tech 2% $0
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 18 +8.7% -1.7% 33% 6% -8.2%
≤90d 18 +8.7% -1.7% 33% 6% -8.2%
all 47 -1.4% -10.8% 51% 4% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 4% -9.4%
10% -19.4% 4% -18.0%
15% -27.2% 4% -26.0%
20% -34.3% 4% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 86% · top 2 90% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

470d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses24 / 23
Open positions3
Markets (closed)47 / 50
History coverage470d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 96¢ 95¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 60¢ 62¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 23 $40 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $16 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $49 −$2 -4%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $2 $0 -3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $8 $0 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $44 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $64 −$4 -7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $49 −$1 -1%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $49 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $94 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $17 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $21 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 08 $78 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 08 $28 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $10 +$17 +170%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $37 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $58 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $33 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 13 $2 $0 +1%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be named in Epstein files? Dec 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $1 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? May 08 $2 $0 +1%
Will Poilievre say "Trudeau" during Canadian Election Debate on April Apr 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $120k in April? Apr 17 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? Apr 17 $1 $0 +8%
Will MrBeast buy TikTok before July? Apr 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will Dyson Daniels win 2024-25 NBA Defensive Player of the Year? Apr 16 $2 +$1 +55%
U.S. recession before May 2025? Apr 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 15 $13 $0 -0%
Will another candidate win the Oakland mayoral race? Apr 13 $14 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 13 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? Apr 12 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 230-239 times April 4 - 11? Apr 10 $14 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 250-274 times April 4 - 11? Apr 10 $14 $0 +1%
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? Apr 10 $14 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? Apr 07 $13 $0 +1%
Will Rangers win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 04 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bayern Munich win the Bundesliga? Apr 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 28 $13 $0 +0%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 China Grand Prix? Mar 25 $13 $0 +3%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 21 $13 $0 +0%
India wins the most gold medals in 2025 Special Olympics? Mar 17 $13 $0 +2%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 13 $13 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting? Mar 12 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 42-43°F on March 11? Mar 12 $12 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $40 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 96¢ $18 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 96¢ $22 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 96¢ $40 14h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $45 16h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $47 18h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 8d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 8d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 8d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $16 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $47 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $47 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 88¢ $26 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 88¢ $11 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $33 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $6 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $6 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $31 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $38 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $8 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $23 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $22 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $44 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $4 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $5 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.13 · official $41.81 (match) · 162 history records