Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:43:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
2C 0x2caf…f2ca crypto 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$78 (-27%) realized −$197 · open +$119
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -45% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$181now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 11d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% +$170
crypto 39% −$82
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-50.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +44.9% +31.1% 100% 100% +31.1%
≤30d 4 -45.1% -50.3% 25% 25% -21.9%
≤90d 4 -45.1% -50.3% 25% 25% -21.9%
all 4 -45.1% -50.3% 25% 25% -21.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -50.3% 25% -21.9%
10% -55.0% 25% -29.4%
15% -59.4% 25% -36.2%
20% -63.4% 0% -42.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -45% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$27 · ×1.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$181
Realized−$197
Unrealized+$119
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage11d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Dplus KIA Challengers 19¢ 56¢ $62 $181 +$119 (+194%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 18 $114 +$51 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 08 $31 −$30 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $40 −$10 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 07 $43 −$42 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 19¢ $63 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 Academy 85¢ $4 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 Academy 68¢ $160 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 46¢ $114 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $31 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? SELL No 19¢ $30 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? BUY No 23¢ $40 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $43 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $180.97 · official $181.00 (match) · 8 history records