Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:01:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
2C 0x2caf…2a5e other 73 markets active 0h ago coverage 619d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$71 (+0%) realized +$71 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate22%16W / 56L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$311per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$103now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$13
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 61% −$12
politics 18% −$10
other 15% −$14
sports 3% +$105
economics 1% $0
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 16 -6.4% -15.3% 12% 0% -11.5%
≤90d 59 -0.3% -9.8% 24% 14% -8.1%
all 72 -0.5% -9.9% 22% 11% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 11% -9.2%
10% -18.6% 11% -17.9%
15% -26.4% 10% -25.9%
20% -33.6% 8% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$2 · ×5.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.69 per $1 lost it wins $1.69
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

619d coverage
Net worth$103
Realized+$71
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses16 / 56
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)72 / 73
History coverage619d
Avg bet$311
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $103 $103 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $33 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $27 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $28 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 11 $20 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $58 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $34 $0 -0%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $26 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $34 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $32 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $34 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $21 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 01 $48 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $120 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $52 $0 -0%
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 May 23 $22 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 18 $162 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 11 $167 $0 -0%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $184 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $176 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $174 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 3? May 06 $69 $0 +0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $187 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 01 $176 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $171 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 26 $187 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $173 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $185 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $188 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $170 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $180 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $187 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $189 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 23 $177 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $184 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $359 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $181 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 16 $177 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $191 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $184 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $182 $0 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $208 $0 -0%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $13 +$8 +62%
Bulls vs. Wizards Apr 08 $13 +$6 +48%
Lightning vs. Sabres Apr 07 $7 −$7 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies Apr 07 $10 +$1 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $33 6m
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $33 1h
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $27 18h
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $27 19h
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $103 33h
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $28 43h
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $28 44h
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $20 5d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 6d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $28 6d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $28 6d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $34 7d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $34 7d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $25 8d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 8d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 48¢ $13 9d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $34 11d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $34 11d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $32 12d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $32 12d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $34 15d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $34 15d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $21 15d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $21 15d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $29 16d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $29 16d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $24 17d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $24 17d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $28 23d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $28 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $103.45 · official $103.45 (match) · 317 history records