Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:39:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2C 0x2cab…598b crypto 17 markets active 6d ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$88 (-25%) realized −$88 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate41%7W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day47.0pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$98
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-24.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -16.3% -24.2% 41% 35% -36.0%
≤30d 17 -16.3% -24.2% 41% 35% -36.0%
≤90d 17 -16.3% -24.2% 41% 35% -36.0%
all 17 -16.3% -24.2% 41% 35% -36.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.2% 35% -36.0%
10% ← realistic here -31.5% 24% -42.1%
15% -38.1% 18% -47.7%
20% -44.2% 18% -52.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 49% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$12 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$88
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses7 / 10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage1d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day47.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 11 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 11 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 11 $51 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 11 $20 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 11 $61 −$7 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $62 −$28 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$5 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $26 −$4 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$1 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 11 $16 −$6 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +12%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 11 $1 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $31 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $31 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $31 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $20 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $20 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $20 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $29 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $41 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 18¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $21 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $18 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $21 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $16 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 46¢ $7 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 63 history records