Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:42:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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2C 0x2caa…a0d2 crypto 365 markets active 1h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$116 (+2%) realized +$121 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate48%174W / 187L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day46.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$5
14 days−$119
30 days−$84
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$330
sports 3% −$1
world 3% +$263
other 0% −$16
weather 0% −$5
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-22.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -63.1% -66.6% 29% 29% -50.4%
≤30d 361 -14.5% -22.6% 48% 36% -10.3%
≤90d 361 -14.5% -22.6% 48% 36% -10.3%
all 361 -14.5% -22.6% 48% 36% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.6% 36% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -30.0% 29% -18.9%
15% -36.8% 21% -26.8%
20% -43.0% 15% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$7 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized+$121
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses174 / 187
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)361 / 365
History coverage23d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day46.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 361 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? No 78¢ 57¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-26%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? No 78¢ 80¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? No 92¢ 92¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 72 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 08 $1 +$1 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 08 $2 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 08 $3 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -80%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $3 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 07 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 07 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 07 $1 +$4 +348%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 07 $1 +$2 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 07 $2 +$2 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 06 $2 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 06 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 06 $1 +$2 +215%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 06 $2 −$2 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 4d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $3 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Down 18¢ $0 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $3 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Down 51¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Up 30¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $1 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.70 · official $36.70 (match) · 1332 history records