Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:53:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

2C 0x2ca6…a493 other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL +$52 (+12%) realized +$51 · open +$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip

Net edge-16%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%1W / 1L

Drawdown92%max

Avg bet$56per market

Trades / day11.0pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit25%portable

Net worth$141now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-8.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+1.3%	-8.4%	50%	50%	+5.7%
≤30d	2	+1.3%	-8.4%	50%	50%	+5.7%
≤90d	2	+1.3%	-8.4%	50%	50%	+5.7%
all	2	+1.3%	-8.4%	50%	50%	+5.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover11.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-8.4%	50%	+5.7%
10%	-17.1%	50%	-4.4%
15%	-25.2%	50%	-13.7%
20%	-32.5%	0%	-22.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +17% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +1% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$98 vs −$47 · ×2.08 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.08 per $1 lost it wins $2.08

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$141

Realized+$51

Unrealized+$1

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses1 / 1

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions6

Markets (closed)2 / 8

History coverage1d

Avg bet$56

Trades / day11.0

Drawdown92%

Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 6 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance	Germany	87¢	86¢	$50	$50	−$0 (-1%)
Will Kylian Mbappé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	19¢	18¢	$30	$29	−$1 (-3%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	10¢	10¢	$20	$20	−$0 (-0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	24¢	23¢	$20	$20	−$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	6¢	7¢	$10	$12	+$3 (+25%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	11¢	11¢	$10	$10	+$0 (+0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance	Jun 29	$202	+$98	+49%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	Jun 29	$102	−$47	-46%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Kylian Mbappé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	19¢	$31	1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance	BUY Germany	87¢	$50	1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance	SELL Brazil	100¢	$300	1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance	BUY Brazil	66¢	$101	1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	SELL Yes	13¢	$55	1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance	BUY Brazil	67¢	$101	2h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$10	2h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	6¢	$10	2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	24¢	$20	2h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	10¢	$21	2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	23¢	$102	3h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $141.24 · official $141.26 (match) · 11 history records