Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:42:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
2C 0x2ca6…6a20 sports 1966 markets active 0h ago coverage 69d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 69d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,434 (-1%) realized −$3,404 · open −$30
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate51%953W / 927L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$185per market
Trades / day45.0pace
Fees−$5,555est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$818now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 69d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$8,158
other 3% +$42
world 0% −$200
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 133 +12.9% +2.2% 56% 56% +0.1%
≤30d 717 +4.9% -5.1% 51% 51% -5.8%
≤90d 1880 +1.3% -8.4% 51% 51% -7.3%
all 1880 +1.3% -8.4% 51% 51% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.4% 51% -7.3%
10% ← realistic here -17.1% 50% -16.1%
15% -25.1% 50% -24.2%
20% -32.5% 48% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$176 vs −$173 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$818
Realized−$3,404
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses953 / 927
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$5,555
Open positions7
Markets (closed)1880 / 1966
History coverage69d ⚠
Avg bet$185
Trades / day45.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 1880 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jakub Mensik 56¢ 87¢ $200 $311 +$111 (+56%)
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner ex-RUBY 53¢ 84¢ $100 $157 +$57 (+57%)
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Gentle Mates 53¢ 46¢ $148 $128 −$20 (-14%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Over 52¢ 52¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Karen Khachanov 70¢ 16¢ $100 $22 −$78 (-78%)
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs HOTU 56¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 493 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Set Handicap: Bublik (-1.5) vs Bellucci (+1.5) Jun 16 $146 +$120 +82%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $452 −$445 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $209 −$206 -98%
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals Jun 15 $189 −$186 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clut Jun 15 $101 +$60 +60%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 15 $152 +$142 +93%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $102 +$201 +197%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $101 −$55 -55%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $101 −$4 -4%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $203 +$151 +74%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $102 +$125 +123%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $146 +$136 +93%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $154 −$150 -98%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $102 −$88 -86%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $260 −$205 -79%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $598 +$483 +81%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $397 +$451 +114%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $138 +$109 +79%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $202 −$200 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $268 −$168 -62%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $491 +$572 +116%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $203 −$200 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $118 −$116 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $102 +$102 +101%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 14 $160 +$168 +105%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 14 $157 +$130 +83%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $331 −$325 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $202 +$128 +64%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Jun 13 $297 −$293 -99%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 13 $140 −$137 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $167 −$165 -99%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 13 $173 +$312 +180%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $507 −$500 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $653 −$642 -98%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group St Jun 13 $101 +$57 +57%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 13 $101 +$94 +93%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 13 $101 +$91 +90%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $299 +$401 +134%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 13 $101 +$77 +76%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $203 +$93 +46%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $102 +$108 +106%
Counter-Strike: struggletony vs MASONIC (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group Jun 13 $114 +$97 +86%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $101 +$116 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner BUY ex-RUBY 53¢ $101 8m
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Jakub Mensik 49¢ $102 29m
Set Handicap: Bublik (-1.5) vs Bellucci (+1.5) SELL Bellucci 100¢ $266 40m
Poznan: Hynek Barton vs Kimmer Coppejans BUY Kimmer Coppejans 52¢ $97 2h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY HOTU 56¢ $101 2h
Set Handicap: Bublik (-1.5) vs Bellucci (+1.5) BUY Bellucci 54¢ $146 4h
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn BUY Karen Khachanov 70¢ $101 5h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Jakub Mensik 65¢ $101 5h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Gentle Mates 53¢ $150 6h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 6h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $101 6h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $452 15h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 53¢ $297 17h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 37¢ $118 18h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 36¢ $209 18h
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov BUY Jack Pinnington Jones 38¢ $72 18h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $199 19h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $102 19h
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $189 19h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clut SELL Team Nemesis 99¢ $161 20h
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta SELL Bebop 100¢ $294 21h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 29¢ $46 22h
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY TheMongolz 35¢ $102 25h
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce BUY Terence Atmane 33¢ $102 27h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 49¢ $102 30h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL FUT Esports 55¢ $97 30h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $101 30h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $101 30h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 56¢ $101 30h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 62¢ $101 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $818.30 · official $818.30 (match) · 3500 history records