Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T04:43:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2C
0x2ca5…ddfe
crypto · 246 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$28 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$29 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$49
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses161 / 74
Open positions11
Markets (closed)235 / 246
History coverage22d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day27.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 11 History 235 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on June 13? No 93¢ 98¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 13? No 96¢ 96¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? Yes 6¢ 87¢ $0 $5 +$4 (+1384%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 14? Yes 26¢ 29¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? Yes 20¢ 21¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? Yes 35¢ 36¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 14? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? No 15¢ 13¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 14? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+20%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 13? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-80%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C or higher on June 13? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-25%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Down 68¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Down 59¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Up 27¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Down 39¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Up 68¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Down 34¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Down 62¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Up 63¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $0 $0 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +201%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +36%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 13 $10 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 13 $7 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June Jun 13 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$2 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$2 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 12 $7 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $9 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $9 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June Jun 11 $8 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 11 $15 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $16 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $15 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June Jun 10 $14 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 10 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 10 $14 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 09 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 9? Jun 09 $8 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 09 $15 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 08 $7 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 8? Jun 08 $10 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 07 $9 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 72% −$19
weather 28% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 13? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 13? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 6m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 28m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 14? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 29m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 29m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 29m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 32m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 15¢ $1 51m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? SELL Yes 83¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 96¢ $19 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 +11.4% +0.8% 78% 38% -10.9%
≤30d 235 +1.1% -8.5% 69% 50% -12.0%
≤90d 235 +1.1% -8.5% 69% 50% -12.0%
all 235 +1.1% -8.5% 69% 50% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover27.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.5% 50% -12.0%
10% ← realistic here -17.3% 37% -20.4%
15% -25.3% 20% -28.1%
20% -32.6% 13% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.81 · official $48.81 (match) · 816 history records