Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:33:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2C 0x2ca2…1798 sports 275 markets active 1h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$73 (-1%) realized −$73 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate76%209W / 66L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$99est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$245
7 days−$803
14 days−$238
30 days−$195
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$135
other 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 86 -13.8% -22.0% 64% 64% -21.3%
≤30d 265 +2.3% -7.4% 75% 75% -11.0%
≤90d 265 +2.3% -7.4% 75% 75% -11.0%
all 275 +3.4% -6.4% 76% 75% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 75% -10.5%
10% -15.4% 75% -19.1%
15% -23.6% 35% -26.9%
20% -31.1% 1% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$49 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$73
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses209 / 66
Est. fees paid−$99
Open positions0
Markets (closed)275 / 275
History coverage138d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 275 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Spirit Academy - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $84 +$28 +33%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Leo Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $91 −$91 -100%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $104 −$104 -100%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $114 −$114 -100%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs KOLESIE - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $30 +$10 +34%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $109 +$38 +35%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $105 +$39 +37%
Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs Phantom - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $87 +$28 +32%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $101 +$35 +35%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $103 +$33 +32%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $100 +$31 +31%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $95 +$35 +36%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $93 +$32 +34%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $29 +$10 +34%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $109 −$109 -100%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $109 +$38 +35%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $62 +$23 +36%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $4 +$1 +34%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $32 +$12 +38%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $101 +$35 +34%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $86 +$31 +36%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $103 +$39 +38%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $101 +$37 +37%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $93 +$33 +35%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $109 −$109 -100%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $40 +$15 +36%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $104 +$37 +36%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $100 +$32 +32%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $26 +$9 +36%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $4 +$1 +38%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $96 +$35 +36%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $4 +$1 +34%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $60 +$20 +33%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $4 +$1 +33%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $55 −$55 -100%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $72 +$27 +38%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $60 +$19 +31%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $91 +$35 +38%
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $88 +$32 +37%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $44 +$14 +33%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Dota 2: BALU vs summer bear - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Spirit Academy - Map 2 Winner SELL Inner Circle Esports 99¢ $112 39m
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Spirit Academy - Map 2 Winner BUY Inner Circle Esports 74¢ $84 1h
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Leo Team - Map 1 Winner BUY 100 Thieves 72¢ $91 3h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner BUY ECHO 74¢ $104 4h
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner BUY Zero Tenacity 75¢ $4 4h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs KOLESIE - Map 1 Winner SELL ECHO 99¢ $40 4h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs KOLESIE - Map 1 Winner BUY ECHO 73¢ $30 5h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner BUY HOTU 72¢ $114 5h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner SELL GenOne 100¢ $148 5h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner BUY GenOne 73¢ $109 6h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner SELL Gentle Mates 99¢ $144 7h
Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs Phantom - Map 1 Winner SELL Phantom 99¢ $115 7h
Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs Phantom - Map 1 Winner BUY Phantom 74¢ $87 8h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner BUY Gentle Mates 72¢ $2 8h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner BUY Gentle Mates 72¢ $9 8h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner BUY Gentle Mates 72¢ $17 8h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner BUY Gentle Mates 72¢ $73 8h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner BUY Gentle Mates 72¢ $4 8h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE - Map 1 Winner SELL Gentle Mates 99¢ $137 8h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE - Map 1 Winner BUY Gentle Mates 73¢ $101 9h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 70¢ $50 11h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa - Map 2 Winner SELL TDK 100¢ $136 11h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa - Map 2 Winner BUY TDK 75¢ $103 11h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Resilience 99¢ $131 12h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Resilience 75¢ $100 13h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner SELL PlayTime 99¢ $130 21h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY PlayTime 72¢ $95 22h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL LGD Gaming 100¢ $125 24h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 74¢ $93 24h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner SELL 4ikibamboni 99¢ $40 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 603 history records