Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:17:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2C 0x2ca1…3d0d world 54 markets active 0h ago coverage 337d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+0%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate27%14W / 37L
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$114per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$77now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$8
14 days−$7
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% +$2
other 33% $0
sports 19% $0
politics 4% $0
crypto 3% $0
economics 2% $0
finance 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -0.5% -9.9% 31% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 27 +0.7% -8.9% 44% 4% -9.4%
≤90d 32 +0.6% -9.0% 38% 3% -9.5%
all 51 +0.3% -9.2% 27% 2% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 2% -9.5%
10% -17.9% 0% -18.2%
15% -25.8% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

337d coverage
Net worth$77
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses14 / 37
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)51 / 54
History coverage337d
Avg bet$114
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? No 95¢ 96¢ $76 $76 +$0 (+1%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+6%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 46¢ 48¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $58 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $97 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $17 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $92 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $93 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $93 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 15 $93 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $209 −$2 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $104 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $95 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $128 −$4 -3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $45 $0 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $69 −$2 -2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $107 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $34 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $79 +$1 +1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $3 $0 +12%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $100 +$2 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 30 $132 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $98 +$1 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $99 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $88 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $89 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $83 +$8 +9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $85 −$2 -3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 23 $93 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $737 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $565 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $564 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $310 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 21 $289 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju Jul 20 $10 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jul 20 $97 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 National League Championship? Jul 20 $3 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 20 $100 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Jul 20 $6 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 20 $67 $0 +0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 20 $37 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 12% and 13% in Jul 19 $70 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Jul 19 $34 $0 +0%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jul 19 $73 $0 +0%
Will Ludvig Aberg win The 2025 Open Championship? Jul 19 $30 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in July? Jul 19 $79 $0 -0%
Will Jarlath Burns win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 19 $24 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1900 in July? Jul 19 $85 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 19 $18 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting? Jul 18 $92 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jul 18 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $16 18m
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $16 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $76 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $52 12h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $40 12h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $93 15h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $24 28h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $34 28h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $6 30h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $52 30h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 34h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 36h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 36h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $17 42h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $17 42h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 68¢ $92 46h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $35 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $18 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $40 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $12 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $81 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $93 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $93 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $78 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $15 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $11 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $82 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.51 · official $76.40 (match) · 194 history records