Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:48:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2C 0x2ca1…ddcd sports 207 markets active 1h ago coverage 83d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 83d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$80,502 (-14%) realized −$80,502 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate42%86W / 121L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$2,827per market
Trades / day38.3pace
Fees−$8,766est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 83d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$27,340
other 13% +$26,492
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +82.5% +65.1% 80% 80% +34.1%
≤30d 54 -17.6% -25.5% 37% 35% -3.5%
≤90d 207 +1.0% -8.7% 42% 41% -1.2%
all 207 +1.0% -8.7% 42% 41% -1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.3 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.7% 41% -1.2%
10% -17.4% 41% -10.7%
15% ← realistic here -25.4% 41% -19.3%
20% -32.7% 38% -27.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$3,850) neutral
Persistence
early +12% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
15.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3,958 vs −$2,368 · ×1.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$80,502
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses86 / 121
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$8,766
Open positions0
Markets (closed)207 / 207
History coverage83d ⚠
Avg bet$2,827
Trades / day38.3
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 207 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10,176 +$6,924 +68%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $4,875 −$4,875 -100%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $3,692 +$3,308 +90%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $1,001 +$2,499 +250%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2,925 +$3,075 +105%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $4,024 −$4,000 -99%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $5,275 +$4,725 +90%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,126 −$1,100 -98%
Türkiye leading at halftime? Jun 14 $1,110 −$1,110 -100%
Makarska: Katarzyna Kawa vs Maya Joint Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Set Handicap: Cerundolo (-2.5) vs Zandschulp (+2.5) Jun 13 $44 −$44 -100%
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $77 −$77 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $71 −$71 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $333 −$333 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $61 −$61 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 13 $1,016 −$1,016 -100%
Set Handicap: Sinner (-1.5) vs Medvedev (+1.5) Jun 13 $1,475 −$1,475 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $1,168 −$1,168 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Mariano Navone vs Jakub Mensik Jun 13 $1,822 −$1,822 -100%
Bengaluru 3: Digvijaypratap Singh vs Leo Vithoontien Jun 13 $1,086 −$1,086 -100%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-4.5) Jun 13 $675 −$675 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics Jun 13 $5,384 +$2,284 +42%
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 13 $1,009 −$1,009 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $2,079 −$2,079 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Iga Swiatek vs Elina Svitolina Jun 13 $1,682 −$1,682 -100%
Valencia: Sebastian Baez vs Pablo Carreno Busta Jun 13 $2,230 −$2,230 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Taylor Fritz vs Nishesh Basavareddy Jun 13 $1,600 −$1,600 -100%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) Jun 13 $1,103 −$1,103 -100%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 13 $1,808 −$1,808 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-17? Jun 13 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Federico Cina vs Reilly Opelka Jun 13 $800 −$800 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $3,192 −$3,192 -100%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Rei Sakamoto vs Pedro Martinez Jun 13 $2,959 −$2,959 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Rinky Hijikata vs Tommy Paul Jun 13 $527 −$527 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Dino Prizmic Jun 13 $3,050 −$3,050 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 13 $3,500 −$3,500 -100%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 13 $2,048 −$2,048 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 13 $2,455 −$2,455 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers Jun 13 $2,251 −$2,251 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers Jun 13 $4,098 −$4,098 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5,084 +$2,216 +44%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1,998 +$9,102 +456%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $1,004 +$1,099 +109%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $1,633 +$3,367 +206%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $6,965 +$5,938 +85%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 03 $2,760 +$3,240 +117%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $3,367 +$2,825 +84%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 02 $2,957 +$4,917 +166%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Daniel Altmaier May 26 $31 +$26 +83%
Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5 May 26 $3,751 +$3,360 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 15¢ $2,615 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 21¢ $666 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 28¢ $1,430 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $5,465 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $4,875 9h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 52¢ $3,692 4d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1,001 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $2,925 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $4,024 7d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 52¢ $5,275 7d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $1,126 7d
Türkiye leading at halftime? BUY Yes 37¢ $340 7d
Türkiye leading at halftime? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 7d
Türkiye leading at halftime? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 7d
Türkiye leading at halftime? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 7d
Türkiye leading at halftime? BUY Yes 37¢ $51 7d
Türkiye leading at halftime? BUY Yes 37¢ $41 7d
Türkiye leading at halftime? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 7d
Türkiye leading at halftime? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 7d
Türkiye leading at halftime? BUY Yes 37¢ $486 7d
Türkiye leading at halftime? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 7d
Türkiye leading at halftime? BUY Yes 37¢ $30 7d
Türkiye leading at halftime? BUY Yes 37¢ $49 7d
Türkiye leading at halftime? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 7d
Türkiye leading at halftime? BUY Yes 37¢ $11 7d
Türkiye leading at halftime? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 7d
Türkiye leading at halftime? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 7d
Türkiye leading at halftime? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 7d
Türkiye leading at halftime? BUY Yes 37¢ $25 7d
Türkiye leading at halftime? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records