Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T15:22:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2C 0x2c9e…d14c crypto 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 161d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$564 (+8%) realized +$564 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate100%19W / 0L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$339per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% +$560
other 18% +$3
weather 4% +$1
world 1% +$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +1.3% -8.3% 100% 0% -8.4%
≤30d 5 +1.2% -8.4% 100% 0% -8.4%
≤90d 7 +0.9% -8.7% 100% 0% -8.7%
all 19 +3.5% -6.3% 100% 5% -1.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.3% 5% -1.9%
10% -15.3% 5% -11.3%
15% -23.5% 5% -19.9%
20% -31.0% 5% -27.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 98% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$886) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized+$564
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses19 / 0
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)19 / 20
History coverage161d
Avg bet$339
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Australia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 98¢ 98¢ $44 $44 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $44 $0 +0%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $44 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $43 +$2 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 21 $43 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 01 $42 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 70-71°F on April 29 May 10 $42 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on March 17? Apr 28 $42 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -3°C or below on March 5? Mar 16 $42 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Mar 04 $42 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 01 $41 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 66-67°F on February Feb 26 $41 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 41°C or higher on Febr Feb 22 $41 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 10? Feb 10 $1,110 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 39°C on February 8? Feb 09 $55 $0 +0%
Will Billie Eilish perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 09 $1,054 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 February 2-8? Feb 08 $2,151 +$3 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Feb 08 $945 +$555 +59%
Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 February 2-8? Feb 08 $886 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 20? Feb 07 $33 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Australia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 98¢ $44 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 100¢ $44 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 100¢ $44 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 96¢ $43 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $43 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $43 17d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $42 48d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 70-71°F on April 29 BUY No 100¢ $42 61d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on March 17? BUY No 100¢ $42 104d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -3°C or below on March 5? BUY No 100¢ $42 116d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $42 119d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY No 100¢ $41 122d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 66-67°F on February BUY No 100¢ $41 126d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 41°C or higher on Febr BUY No 100¢ $41 138d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 10? SELL No 100¢ $1,111 138d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 10? BUY No 100¢ $1,110 139d
Will Billie Eilish perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? BUY No 100¢ $44 139d
Will Billie Eilish perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? BUY No 100¢ $1,010 139d
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 February 2-8? SELL No 100¢ $1,169 139d
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 February 2-8? SELL No 100¢ $300 139d
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 February 2-8? SELL No 100¢ $5 139d
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 February 2-8? SELL No 100¢ $10 139d
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 February 2-8? SELL No 100¢ $10 139d
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 February 2-8? SELL No 100¢ $5 139d
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 February 2-8? SELL No 100¢ $5 139d
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 February 2-8? SELL No 100¢ $127 139d
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 February 2-8? SELL No 100¢ $10 139d
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 February 2-8? SELL No 100¢ $5 139d
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 February 2-8? SELL No 100¢ $508 139d
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 February 2-8? BUY No 100¢ $1,502 140d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.36 · official $44.36 (match) · 54 history records