Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:09:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2C 0x2c9e…dee8 world 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 392d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$8 (-1%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate36%10W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 83% −$4
other 9% +$1
politics 5% −$3
crypto 3% $0
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 20% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 14 -0.8% -10.2% 36% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 14 -0.8% -10.2% 36% 0% -10.1%
all 28 -4.5% -13.6% 36% 0% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 0% -10.6%
10% -21.8% 0% -19.1%
15% -29.4% 0% -26.9%
20% -36.3% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 73% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

392d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses10 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)28 / 29
History coverage392d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 86¢ 86¢ $41 $42 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $20 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 18 $95 −$1 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $2 $0 -3%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $12 $0 -3%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 17 $13 +$1 +6%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $175 −$2 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 02 $42 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $13 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $47 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 30 $18 −$2 -10%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $44 +$1 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 28 $23 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 28 $27 $0 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 28 $65 $0 +0%
Will Jack Draper win Wimbledon 2025? Dec 14 $2 $0 +6%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by less than 25,000 betw Jul 01 $5 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 Jun 26 $11 $0 -2%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 10 $14 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win more than 55% of the vote in the South Korea el Jun 06 $13 $0 +2%
Will Jennifer Geerlings-Simons be the next president of Suriname after Jun 05 $2 $0 -19%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win Daegu (대구) in the 2025 Korean Presidential elec Jun 02 $9 −$3 -36%
Will Solana dip to $110 in May? Jun 02 $20 $0 +1%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on May 31? May 28 $1 −$1 -68%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? May 27 $22 $0 +0%
Will George Russell finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? May 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 24 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2800 on May 23? May 24 $2 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $33 2h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $9 2h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $20 20h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $20 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $38 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $8 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $47 29h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 38h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 40h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 40h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 32¢ $3 47h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 32¢ $8 47h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 33¢ $12 47h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $5 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $9 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $13 2d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $1 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $6 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $8 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $18 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $34 16d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $43 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $42 17d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $3 19d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $10 19d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $7 19d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $6 19d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $47 20d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $47 20d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $16 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.52 · official $41.52 (match) · 109 history records