Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T14:39:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2C
0x2c9e…fbfd
sports · 760 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$1,388 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,708 · open +$320
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,017
Realized−$1,708
Unrealized+$320
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses353 / 399
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$699
Open positions8
Markets (closed)752 / 760
History coverage147d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%
Chart Positions 8 History 752 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$829
7 days+$1,740
14 days−$393
30 days−$7,455
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Aurora Gaming 74¢ 100¢ $500 $675 +$175 (+35%)
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy - Map 2 Winner HEROIC Academy 45¢ 100¢ $90 $200 +$110 (+122%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Monte 47¢ 100¢ $50 $106 +$56 (+112%)
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Over 31¢ 32¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+3%)
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? Yes 11¢ 3¢ $20 $6 −$14 (-70%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 18¢ 10¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-47%)
Major CEX insolvent in 2026? Yes 12¢ 7¢ $7 $4 −$3 (-42%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 21¢ 22¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 33¢ 0¢ $57 $0 −$57 (-100%)
LoL: Conviction vs Supernova (BO3) - North American Challengers League Regular Season Conviction 69¢ 0¢ $99 $0 −$99 (-100%)
Valorant: KRÜ Blaze vs ShindeN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Season KRÜ Blaze 6¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Map Handicap: OX (-1.5) vs KRÜ Blaze (+1.5) KRÜ Blaze 29¢ 0¢ $56 $0 −$56 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 1 Winner CYBERSHOKE Esports 42¢ 0¢ $53 $0 −$53 (-100%)
Valorant: SaD Esports vs YFP Gaming (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage YFP Gaming 50¢ 0¢ $276 $0 −$276 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Passion UA - Map 2 Winner Passion UA 15¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs F5 Esports (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoffs F5 Esports 6¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Game Handicap: ES (-1.5) vs Anubis Gaming (+1.5) Eintracht Spandau 53¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Game Handicap: BRO (-1.5) vs DN SOOPers (+1.5) DN SOOPers 49¢ 0¢ $66 $0 −$66 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Lazer Cats (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Group Stage Lazer Cats 31¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs LOUD 46¢ 0¢ $125 $0 −$125 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs Phantom (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group Stage Lavked 55¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Valorant: 100 Thieves vs FURIA Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup Americas Qualifier Stage 2 FURIA Esports 43¢ 0¢ $105 $0 −$105 (-100%)
Game Handicap: HMBLE (-2.5) vs GMBLERS ESPORTS (+2.5) GMBLERS ESPORTS 36¢ 0¢ $116 $0 −$116 (-100%)
Game Handicap: SHG (-1.5) vs DetonatioN FocusMe (+1.5) Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming 68¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Map Handicap: 9z (-1.5) vs KRÜ Blaze (+1.5) KRÜ Blaze 27¢ 0¢ $33 $0 −$33 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $102 +$161 +158%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $96 +$97 +101%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $172 +$119 +69%
Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Atputies - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $7 −$7 -97%
Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Atputies - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $20 −$19 -97%
Brenden Aaronson: 2+ goals Jun 13 $50 +$3 +6%
Ramón Sosa: 2+ goals Jun 13 $50 +$2 +4%
Mauricio Magalhães: 2+ goals Jun 13 $50 +$1 +3%
Isidro Pitta: 2+ goals Jun 13 $20 +$1 +5%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $278 +$121 +44%
Dota 2: Level UP vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $61 +$53 +88%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $122 −$120 -98%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 12 $132 +$126 +96%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $153 −$150 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $109 −$107 -98%
Game Handicap: ES (-1.5) vs Anubis Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europ Jun 12 $67 −$66 -98%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) Jun 11 $76 +$116 +152%
César Huerta: 3+ goals Jun 11 $5 $0 +5%
Raúl Jiménez: 3+ goals Jun 11 $20 +$1 +6%
Gilberto Mora: 2+ goals Jun 11 $100 +$3 +3%
Evidence Makgopa: 3+ goals Jun 11 $100 +$2 +2%
Lyle Foster: 3+ goals Jun 11 $100 +$3 +3%
Iqraam Rayners: 3+ goals Jun 11 $50 +$1 +3%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $244 +$223 +91%
LoL: BOMBA Team vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 11 $51 +$27 +53%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gr Jun 11 $141 +$119 +85%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $8 −$8 -97%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs FUT Esports (+3.5) Jun 11 $178 +$159 +90%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 11 $135 +$121 +90%
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs F5 Esports (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoffs Jun 11 $5 −$4 -97%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 1 Win Jun 11 $203 +$203 +100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $39 −$38 -98%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Seri Jun 11 $152 −$150 -99%
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $165 −$164 -99%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 11 $68 −$67 -98%
Counter-Strike: NEW VISION vs XI Esport (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe P Jun 11 $51 +$121 +238%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 11 $258 +$146 +57%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - The International Europe Op Jun 10 $12 +$7 +57%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group Jun 10 $48 +$91 +190%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 10 $102 +$98 +97%
Counter-Strike: B8 Academy vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Eur Jun 10 $248 −$245 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 10 $79 −$77 -98%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $91 −$90 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $48 −$47 -99%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 10 $15 +$15 +97%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FULL SENSE (-2.5) vs Global Esports (+2.5) Jun 10 $51 +$58 +114%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $101 +$47 +47%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 10 $97 +$161 +166%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 94% −$1,513
other 6% +$129
world 0% −$39
crypto 0% +$12
tech 0% +$21
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY Monte 47¢ $51 42m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 74¢ $504 1h
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy - Map 2 Winner BUY HEROIC Academy 45¢ $33 2h
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy - Map 2 Winner BUY HEROIC Academy 45¢ $59 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 38¢ $102 3h
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 67¢ $71 4h
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 54¢ $101 4h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 47¢ $15 4h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 49¢ $81 4h
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 31¢ $18 4h
Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Atputies - Map 2 Winner BUY Atputies 9¢ $7 5h
Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Atputies - Map 1 Winner BUY Atputies 8¢ $20 6h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 21¢ $2 6h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 42¢ $122 25h
Dota 2: Level UP vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner BUY Level UP 53¢ $61 25h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 46¢ $10 26h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 41¢ $142 26h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 2 Winner BUY B8 34¢ $109 28h
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 50¢ $132 29h
Game Handicap: ES (-1.5) vs Anubis Gaming (+1.5) BUY Eintracht Spandau 53¢ $101 29h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 69¢ $278 31h
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 BUY Under 35¢ $51 31h
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europ BUY Donstu Esports 49¢ $67 31h
Ramón Sosa: 2+ goals BUY No 96¢ $50 32h
Mauricio Magalhães: 2+ goals BUY No 97¢ $50 32h
Isidro Pitta: 2+ goals BUY No 95¢ $20 32h
Brenden Aaronson: 2+ goals BUY No 95¢ $50 32h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 43h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) BUY Spirit 39¢ $31 45h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) BUY Spirit 39¢ $46 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 85 +8.4% -2.0% 58% 46% +9.5%
≤30d 469 -21.9% -29.4% 39% 36% -25.7%
≤90d 723 -6.9% -15.7% 46% 44% -12.8%
all 752 -3.1% -12.3% 47% 45% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 45% -12.3%
10% -20.7% 42% -20.7%
15% -28.4% 37% -28.3%
20% -35.4% 32% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,017.32 · official $1,017.32 (match) · 1580 history records