Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:00:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2C 0x2c99…c8d4 crypto 149 markets active 1h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,018 (+1%) realized +$993 · open +$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate97%141W / 4L
Whale WR97%big bets
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$510per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$1,682now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$54
14 days+$109
30 days+$598
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% +$858
other 8% +$89
tech 1% +$1
politics 0% +$1
world 0% +$1
economics 0% +$1
sports 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -5.3% -14.3% 94% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 33 +4.4% -5.5% 94% 12% -5.4%
≤90d 102 +1.8% -7.9% 96% 7% -8.2%
all 145 +2.5% -7.3% 97% 8% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 8% -8.4%
10% -16.1% 6% -17.2%
15% -24.2% 3% -25.2%
20% -31.7% 2% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 46% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 97% (≥$993) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$43 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×6.45 per $1 lost it wins $6.45
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$1,682
Realized+$993
Unrealized+$25
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses141 / 4
Whale WR (big bets)97%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)145 / 149
History coverage139d
Avg bet$510
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 145 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $1,281 $1,295 +$13 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 17? No 99¢ 99¢ $331 $330 −$1 (-0%)
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? No 73¢ 94¢ $44 $56 +$13 (+29%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? No 5¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $518 +$6 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $1,379 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $877 +$16 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 16? Jun 16 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $50 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 14? Jun 15 $1,091 +$4 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $50 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $986 +$14 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 11? Jun 12 $12 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 11? Jun 12 $978 +$2 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 10? Jun 11 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $725 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 10? Jun 11 $87 +$4 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $372 +$6 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 10? Jun 11 $1,341 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $486 +$14 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 June 1-7? Jun 08 $5 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 June 1-7? Jun 08 $10 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 June 1-7? Jun 08 $10 $0 +5%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 June 1-7? Jun 08 $15 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 June 1-7? Jun 08 $20 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 June 1-7? Jun 08 $60 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 June 1-7? Jun 08 $794 +$23 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 June 1-7? Jun 08 $884 +$16 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $39 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $4 +$2 +43%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $20 +$30 +151%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $359 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 2? Jun 03 $492 +$3 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? Jun 01 $80 +$66 +83%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 01 $1,226 +$402 +33%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 May 4-10? May 08 $79 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 6? May 07 $79 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 5? May 06 $1,292 +$7 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 4? May 05 $98 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 4? May 05 $1,193 +$12 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 April 27-May 3? May 04 $298 +$4 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $83,000 on May 3? May 04 $980 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 3? May 03 $60 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 3? May 03 $1,217 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on May 2? May 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $81,000 on May 2? May 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on May 2? May 03 $54 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 2? May 03 $1,270 +$7 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on May 1? May 02 $220 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 1? May 02 $1,256 +$7 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? May 01 $367 +$25 +7%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in April? May 01 $859 +$11 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $90 54m
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $14 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $99 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $50 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $50 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $29 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $74 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $440 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $768 5h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $1 5h
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $1,379 10h
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $493 20h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $123 23h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $123 23h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $184 23h
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $2 23h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $8 23h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $116 23h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $64 23h
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $2 23h
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $22 23h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $2 24h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $258 35h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 57¢ $6 35h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $50 2d
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $1,091 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 11? BUY No 98¢ $986 5d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 10? BUY No 99¢ $99 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $599 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 11? BUY Yes 99¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,681.66 · official $1,681.66 (match) · 415 history records