Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T15:12:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2C
0x2c95…801d
crypto · 614 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$19 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$21 · open +$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses491 / 122
Open positions1
Markets (closed)613 / 614
History coverage65d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day14.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 613 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$4
14 days+$7
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Up 0¢ 64¢ $0 $3 +$3 (+0%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Up 83¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Up 88¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Up 90¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $9 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $13 −$2 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $9 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $9 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 11 $9 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 11 $9 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 11 $9 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 11 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 11 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 11 $9 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 11 $9 −$2 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 11 $9 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $9 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $9 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $4 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $4 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $4 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $4 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $6 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $9 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $4 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $9 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $9 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $9 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $4 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $4 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $4 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 77¢ $3 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $4 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $4 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $4 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $4 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $4 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $4 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $4 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 165 +0.2% -9.4% 85% 9% -9.1%
≤30d 521 +0.0% -9.5% 81% 8% -9.7%
≤90d 613 -0.2% -9.7% 80% 12% -10.2%
all 613 -0.2% -9.7% 80% 12% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover14.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 12% -10.2%
10% -18.3% 2% -18.8%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.7%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.69 · official $2.69 (match) · 1270 history records