Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:40:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
2C 0x2c94…d943 sports 44 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$112 (-6%) realized −$112 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%43W / 1L
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day16.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% +$8
other 23% +$5
politics 21% −$10
world 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +0.8% -8.8% 98% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 44 +0.8% -8.8% 98% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 44 +0.8% -8.8% 98% 0% -9.4%
all 44 +0.8% -8.8% 98% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 0% -9.4%
10% -17.5% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.5% 0% -26.0%
20% -32.8% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$11 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$112
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses43 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)44 / 44
History coverage4d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day16.9
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 44 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will "Mamdani" be in the headlines this week? Jun 22 $89 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? Jun 22 $176 −$11 -6%
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 22 $50 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Bipartisan" this week? Jun 22 $77 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Soccer" this week? Jun 22 $40 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Football" this week? Jun 22 $50 $0 +1%
Will anyone say "Raven" during House of the Dragon E1 S3? Jun 22 $50 $0 +1%
Will "Run It Back" be said during the Valorant Masters London 2026 Gra Jun 22 $50 $0 +1%
Will "Squeaky" be said during the IEM Cologne 2026 Grand Finals? Jun 22 $45 $0 +1%
Will happywei have the most kills on a single map at Masters London 20 Jun 22 $32 +$1 +3%
Will St. Louis Shock finish in 1st place at the Major League Picklebal Jun 21 $50 $0 +1%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) Jun 21 $9 $0 +1%
Corbin Carroll: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $50 $0 +1%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) Jun 21 $50 $0 +1%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Spirit vs Verso Time - Game 3 Winner Jun 21 $5 $0 +1%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) Jun 21 $9 $0 +1%
Daylen Lile: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $20 $0 +1%
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: Tied after 5 innings? Jun 21 $25 $0 +1%
Will the announcers say "History" during the Spain vs Saudi Arabia FIF Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Will the announcers say "Champion" during the Spain vs Saudi Arabia FI Jun 21 $50 $0 +1%
Will the announcers say "Header" during the Spain vs Saudi Arabia FIFA Jun 21 $40 $0 +0%
Will the match not air? Jun 21 $55 $0 +0%
Colorado Rockies winning after 5 innings? Jun 21 $84 +$1 +1%
Will the announcers say "Powerade" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA Wor Jun 20 $60 +$1 +1%
Will the announcers say "Handball" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA Wor Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Will the announcers say "Penalty Shootout" during the Brazil vs Haiti Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA World Jun 20 $18 $0 +0%
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA World Jun 20 $49 +$1 +1%
Will the announcers say "Nutmeg / Meg" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? Jun 20 $5 $0 +2%
Lazarov vs. Marchi: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 20 $81 +$1 +1%
Lazarov vs. Marchi: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 20 $99 +$1 +1%
StarCraft II: Solar vs MaxPax (BO5) - WardiTV Championship Playoffs Jun 20 $40 $0 +1%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $20 $0 +1%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $20 $0 +1%
Difaâ Hassani El Jadida to score first vs. Maghreb AS de Fès? Jun 19 $19 $0 +1%
Rainbow Six Siege: EDward Gaming vs Kingzone - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $5 $0 +1%
Will Trump shake every UFC Freedom 250 fight winner's hand? Jun 19 $40 $0 +1%
Will Trump dance during UFC Freedom 250? Jun 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "White House" during UFC 250? Jun 19 $27 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk and Sam Altman settle? Jun 19 $5 $0 +0%
Alphonso Davies: 1+ assists Jun 19 $50 $0 +1%
Will Spencer Pratt concede by June 15? Jun 18 $9 +$1 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $165 15m
Will "Mamdani" be in the headlines this week? BUY No 100¢ $39 20m
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $49 1h
Will "Mamdani" be in the headlines this week? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $49 1h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $10 1h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $10 1h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $9 1h
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY Yes 100¢ $50 3h
Will Trump say "Bipartisan" this week? BUY No 100¢ $27 3h
Will Trump say "Bipartisan" this week? BUY No 100¢ $50 3h
Will Trump say "Football" this week? BUY No 99¢ $50 3h
Will Trump say "Soccer" this week? BUY No 100¢ $40 3h
Will anyone say "Raven" during House of the Dragon E1 S3? BUY Yes 99¢ $50 3h
Will "Run It Back" be said during the Valorant Masters London 2026 Gra BUY Yes 99¢ $50 7h
Will "Squeaky" be said during the IEM Cologne 2026 Grand Finals? BUY No 99¢ $45 7h
1st 5 Innings Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) BUY Baltimore Orioles 99¢ $9 9h
Corbin Carroll: Home Runs O/U 0.5 BUY Under 99¢ $50 9h
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) BUY Minnesota Twins 99¢ $50 9h
Will St. Louis Shock finish in 1st place at the Major League Picklebal BUY Yes 99¢ $50 10h
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) BUY Cincinnati Reds 99¢ $9 11h
Will happywei have the most kills on a single map at Masters London 20 BUY Yes 97¢ $32 11h
Daylen Lile: Home Runs O/U 0.5 BUY Under 99¢ $20 11h
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Spirit vs Verso Time - Game 3 Winner BUY Verso Time 99¢ $5 11h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: Tied after 5 innings? BUY No 99¢ $25 12h
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 14h
Will the announcers say "History" during the Spain vs Saudi Arabia FIF BUY Yes 100¢ $50 15h
Will the announcers say "Champion" during the Spain vs Saudi Arabia FI BUY Yes 99¢ $50 15h
Will the match not air? BUY No 99¢ $5 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 105 history records