Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:27:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2C 0x2c92…9cd9 sports 450 markets active 2h ago coverage 245d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$102 (-1%) realized −$102 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate51%228W / 222L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$37
7 days+$37
14 days+$37
30 days+$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% −$435
other 33% +$301
crypto 9% −$13
world 1% +$63
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +53.1% +38.5% 100% 100% +37.8%
≤30d 2 +53.1% +38.5% 100% 100% +37.8%
≤90d 74 -12.5% -20.9% 51% 41% -16.2%
all 450 -5.4% -14.4% 51% 45% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 45% -10.4%
10% -22.6% 39% -19.0%
15% -30.0% 32% -26.8%
20% -36.9% 26% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +36% → late -47% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$9 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

245d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized−$102
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses228 / 222
Open positions0
Markets (closed)450 / 450
History coverage245d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 450 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $43 +$21 +49%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $27 +$16 +57%
England vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Mar 27 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-03-27? Mar 27 $5 +$3 +64%
Will Germany win on 2026-03-27? Mar 27 $5 −$2 -49%
Will Switzerland vs. Germany end in a draw? Mar 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-03-27? Mar 27 $17 +$3 +18%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - European Pro League Pla Mar 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will England win on 2026-03-27? Mar 27 $19 −$19 -100%
Adelaide 36ers vs. Sydney Kings Mar 27 $160 −$160 -100%
Counter-Strike: Imperial vs Galorys (BO3) - FERJEE In House Group C Mar 27 $5 +$5 +100%
Counter-Strike: ALGO Esports vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #19 Gr Mar 27 $5 −$1 -19%
Will Morocco win on 2026-03-27? Mar 27 $9 −$9 -100%
Shanxi Loongs vs. Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin Mar 27 $10 +$4 +41%
Fujian Sturgeons vs. Shenzhen Leopards Mar 27 $43 −$34 -78%
ELH: Liberec vs. Karlovy Vary Mar 27 $5 $0 -6%
Will Vissel Kōbe win on 2026-03-27? Mar 27 $5 −$4 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Mar 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Kings vs. Magic: O/U 230.5 Mar 27 $5 +$5 +92%
Pelicans vs. Pistons: O/U 226.5 Mar 27 $5 +$5 +106%
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - BetBoom Storm Group Stage Mar 27 $2 +$4 +194%
Blue Jackets vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5 Mar 27 $5 +$5 +92%
Texas Longhorns vs. Purdue Boilermakers: O/U 147.5 Mar 27 $5 +$5 +103%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Nemiga (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup Mar 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Türkiye vs. Romania: Both Teams to Score Mar 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Brazil vs. France: O/U 3.5 Mar 26 $15 +$8 +51%
Will Poland win on 2026-03-26? Mar 26 $109 +$20 +18%
Will Italy win on 2026-03-26? Mar 26 $87 +$23 +26%
Will Sweden win on 2026-03-26? Mar 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-03-26? Mar 26 $76 +$19 +25%
Will Georgia win on 2026-03-26? Mar 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Cyprus vs. Belarus: Both Teams to Score Mar 26 $5 −$4 -89%
Will Cyprus win on 2026-03-26? Mar 26 $3 −$2 -76%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - European Pro League Playof Mar 26 $10 −$5 -47%
Türkiye vs. Romania: O/U 2.5 Mar 26 $5 $0 +4%
Pakistan Super League: Lahore Qalandars vs Hyderabad Kingsmen Mar 26 $129 −$2 -2%
Counter-Strike: Alliance vs EYEBALLERS (BO3) - Journey Group D Mar 26 $5 +$4 +80%
Moldova vs. Lithuania: Both Teams to Score Mar 26 $11 +$4 +37%
Nets vs. Warriors Mar 26 $5 −$1 -25%
Vietnam vs. Bangladesh: O/U 4.5 Mar 26 $32 +$8 +25%
Naples: Carlo Alberto Caniato vs Alexandre Muller Mar 26 $11 +$7 +64%
Yokkaichi: Yu-Hsiou Hsu vs Yuta Shimizu Mar 26 $7 +$4 +58%
Rockets vs. Timberwolves Mar 26 $116 +$3 +2%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Mar 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 1WIN (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup # Mar 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Manchester United WFC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4.5 Mar 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-25? Mar 26 $88 +$33 +37%
Miami Open: Martin Landaluce vs Jiri Lehecka Mar 25 $6 +$1 +18%
NL: ZSC Lions vs. Lugano Mar 25 $5 +$1 +18%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-25? Mar 25 $96 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $43 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $27 9h
England vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 77¢ $21 87d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-03-27? SELL Yes 92¢ $8 87d
Will Germany win on 2026-03-27? SELL Yes 27¢ $3 87d
Will Switzerland vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 87d
Will Spain win on 2026-03-27? SELL Yes 99¢ $20 87d
Will England win on 2026-03-27? BUY Yes 64¢ $14 87d
Counter-Strike: Imperial vs Galorys (BO3) - FERJEE In House Group C SELL Galorys 100¢ $10 87d
Counter-Strike: ALGO Esports vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #19 Gr SELL Bebop 47¢ $4 87d
Will Morocco win on 2026-03-27? BUY Yes 38¢ $9 87d
Counter-Strike: Imperial vs Galorys (BO3) - FERJEE In House Group C BUY Galorys 50¢ $5 87d
Shanxi Loongs vs. Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin SELL Shanxi Loongs 99¢ $14 87d
Will Spain win on 2026-03-27? BUY Yes 84¢ $17 87d
Fujian Sturgeons vs. Shenzhen Leopards SELL Shenzhen Leopards 18¢ $9 87d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-03-27? BUY Yes 56¢ $5 87d
Will England win on 2026-03-27? BUY Yes 65¢ $5 87d
Will Germany win on 2026-03-27? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 87d
ELH: Liberec vs. Karlovy Vary SELL Liberec 64¢ $5 87d
Fujian Sturgeons vs. Shenzhen Leopards BUY Shenzhen Leopards 89¢ $38 87d
Counter-Strike: ALGO Esports vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #19 Gr BUY Bebop 58¢ $5 87d
ELH: Liberec vs. Karlovy Vary BUY Liberec 68¢ $5 87d
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - European Pro League Pla BUY Nemiga Gaming 46¢ $2 87d
Will Vissel Kōbe win on 2026-03-27? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 87d
Fujian Sturgeons vs. Shenzhen Leopards BUY Shenzhen Leopards 68¢ $5 87d
Shanxi Loongs vs. Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin BUY Shanxi Loongs 70¢ $10 87d
Will Vissel Kōbe win on 2026-03-27? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 87d
Adelaide 36ers vs. Sydney Kings BUY Sydney Kings 86¢ $130 87d
Adelaide 36ers vs. Sydney Kings BUY Sydney Kings 64¢ $20 87d
Adelaide 36ers vs. Sydney Kings BUY Sydney Kings 64¢ $10 87d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.54 · official $63.54 (match) · 1065 history records