trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 12 | $1,386 | −$2 | -0% |
| Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 12 | $2,594 | −$3 | -0% |
| Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 12 | $1,200 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 12 | $200 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 12 | $1,400 | −$2 | -0% |
| Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 12 | $600 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 12 | $1,700 | −$2 | -0% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? | Jun 12 | $1,006 | −$2 | -0% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? | Jun 12 | $155 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Jun 12 | $5 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 12 | $10 | −$1 | -5% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 11 | -0.8% | -10.3% | 0% | 0% | -9.7% |
| ≤30d | 11 | -0.8% | -10.3% | 0% | 0% | -9.7% |
| ≤90d | 11 | -0.8% | -10.3% | 0% | 0% | -9.7% |
| all | 11 | -0.8% | -10.3% | 0% | 0% | -9.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -10.3% | 0% | -9.7% |
| 10% | -18.9% | 0% | -18.3% |
| 15% ← realistic here | -26.7% | 0% | -26.2% |
| 20% | -33.9% | 0% | -33.4% |