Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:14:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
2C 0x2c8d…65e7 sports 76 markets active 10h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$83,472 (+18%) realized +$74,890 · open +$8,582
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate48%35W / 38L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$6,159per market
Trades / day30.4pace
Fees−$6,235est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$33,740now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$36,816
7 days+$7,596
14 days+$15,901
30 days+$79,908
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% +$54,733
other 7% +$25,963
world 0% −$231
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +7.7% -2.5% 53% 53% -7.1%
≤30d 65 +28.0% +15.8% 48% 48% +8.6%
≤90d 73 +22.0% +10.4% 48% 45% +5.2%
all 73 +22.0% +10.4% 48% 45% +5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.4 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +10.4% 45% +5.2%
10% -0.2% 44% -4.9%
15% ← realistic here -9.8% 41% -14.1%
20% -18.7% 37% -22.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$9,800) neutral
Persistence
early +7% → late +37% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
33.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7,506 vs −$5,157 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$33,740
Realized+$74,890
Unrealized+$8,582
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses35 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$6,235
Open positions3
Markets (closed)73 / 76
History coverage84d
Avg bet$6,159
Trades / day30.4
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Falcons reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 83¢ 90¢ $20,742 $22,375 +$1,633 (+8%)
Will FURIA reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 18¢ 53¢ $3,133 $9,228 +$6,095 (+195%)
Will G2 reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes $1,284 $2,137 +$853 (+66%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 15 $21,174 +$12,500 +59%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 15 $8,502 +$12,631 +149%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $4,627 +$7,873 +170%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clut Jun 15 $5,086 +$2,753 +54%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $4,527 −$4,503 -100%
Will The MongolZ qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 15 $1,126 +$921 +82%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $13,559 +$20,850 +154%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $8,964 −$8,964 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $14,348 −$14,348 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $19,600 −$19,600 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $7,847 −$7,847 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $11,782 −$11,782 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 15 $7,880 −$7,880 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $13,826 −$13,826 -100%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stag Jun 15 $4,250 −$4,250 -100%
Will MOUZ reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $510 −$510 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 15 $12,494 −$12,494 -100%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 15 $9,800 −$9,800 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $18,284 +$4,441 +24%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $16,751 +$16,749 +100%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 14 $451 +$270 +60%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 14 $12,632 +$22,368 +177%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) Jun 13 $6,450 +$8,550 +133%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $21,700 +$13,300 +61%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 13 $5,075 +$4,925 +97%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 13 $5,155 +$4,845 +94%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 13 $361 +$308 +85%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 12 $12,600 −$12,600 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $4,296 −$4,296 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $5,290 +$7,013 +133%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 08 $1,001 +$17,348 +1734%
Game Handicap: AL (-1.5) vs LGD Gaming (+1.5) Jun 05 $2,470 −$2,470 -100%
Game Handicap: AL (-2.5) vs LGD Gaming (+2.5) Jun 05 $5,222 −$5,222 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 05 $1,351 −$1,351 -100%
Will Alejandro Tabilo win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 01 $84 −$84 -100%
Will Francisco Cerundolo win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 30 $178 −$178 -100%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Stefanos Tsitsipas win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Alexander Bublik win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $160 −$160 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 25 $17,126 −$8,126 -47%
Game Handicap: G2 (-2.5) vs Movistar KOI (+2.5) May 25 $149 +$58 +39%
Game Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Movistar KOI (+1.5) May 25 $5,675 +$6,825 +120%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoff May 25 $5,924 −$5,924 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs May 25 $13,123 +$19,546 +149%
LoL: RED Canids vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs May 24 $4,448 −$2,034 -46%
Game Handicap: NIP (-2.5) vs EDward Gaming (+2.5) May 24 $2,849 +$1,180 +41%
Game Handicap: NIP (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) May 24 $4,378 +$5,621 +128%
Map Handicap: FAL (-2.5) vs Legacy (+2.5) May 24 $11,913 +$5,087 +43%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) May 24 $7,114 +$9,886 +139%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 24 $4,619 +$15,381 +333%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY G2 63¢ $1,284 10h
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY G2 63¢ $658 10h
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY G2 63¢ $3 10h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 44¢ $29 10h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 44¢ $37 10h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 44¢ $8 10h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 44¢ $7 10h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 44¢ $46 10h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 44¢ $6 10h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 44¢ $4 10h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 44¢ $8 10h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 44¢ $21 10h
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY G2 63¢ $10 10h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 44¢ $4 10h
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY G2 63¢ $3,006 10h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 44¢ $8 10h
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY G2 63¢ $2,593 10h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 44¢ $10 10h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 44¢ $427 10h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 44¢ $10 10h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 44¢ $15 10h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 44¢ $2 10h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 44¢ $2 10h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 44¢ $28 10h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 44¢ $63 10h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 44¢ $152 10h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 44¢ $2 10h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 44¢ $22 10h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 44¢ $89 10h
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY G2 63¢ $7 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33,740.45 · official $33,740.45 (match) · 2710 history records