Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T00:02:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2C
0x2c8c…42d1
sports · 1724 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$113 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$115 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$20
Realized−$115
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses745 / 969
Est. fees paid−$68
Open positions10
Markets (closed)1714 / 1724
History coverage62d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day40.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%
Chart Positions 10 History 1714 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$13
14 days−$3
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5) Baltimore Orioles 30¢ 50¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+68%)
Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5) New York Yankees 26¢ 40¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+56%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 Under 57¢ 53¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-7%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 Over 53¢ 52¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5 Under 27¢ 30¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+13%)
Spread: New York Mets (-2.5) New York Mets 26¢ 26¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5 Under 29¢ 28¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5) Kansas City Royals 25¢ 24¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5 Under 30¢ 21¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-30%)
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Kasımpaşa SK vs. Galatasaray SK end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5) Seattle Mariners 30¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-05-26? No 28¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2026-05-24? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will FK Zenit win on 2026-05-17? No 31¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Moldova win on 2026-06-05? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will San Diego Wave FC win on 2026-05-31? No 29¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Club Bolívar vs. CS Independiente Rivadavia end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5) Cleveland Guardians 26¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries Phoenix Mercury 26¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 5.5 Under 27¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 11.5 Over 26¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5 Under 29¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Japan vs. Iceland: O/U 4.5 Over 26¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will FC Universitario vs. Club Aurora end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 +$4 +246%
Derry City FC vs. Bohemians Dublin FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $2 +$4 +213%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $2 −$1 -98%
Saint Patrick´s Athletic FC vs. Drogheda United FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Shelbourne FC vs. Shamrock Rovers: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire: O/U 170.5 Jun 12 $2 +$2 +98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5 Jun 11 $2 +$5 +246%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 7.5 Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Mexico to score first vs. South Africa? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 Jun 11 $2 +$3 +223%
Will SC Recife vs. Athletic Club end in a draw? Jun 11 $2 +$4 +234%
Will Grêmio Novorizontino win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $2 +$4 +223%
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5) Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Ceará SC vs. Avaí FC end in a draw? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 12.5 Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5) Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5) Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5) Jun 10 $2 +$4 +246%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $1 +$4 +296%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $2 +$4 +234%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Fortaleza EC win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $2 +$5 +234%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5 Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 12.5 Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5) Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 11.5 Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5 Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5 Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $2 +$3 +223%
Slovenia vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $2 +$4 +259%
Will UD Almería vs. CD Castellón end in a draw? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Tajikistan vs. India end in a draw? Jun 09 $2 +$4 +259%
Will Osters IF vs. IFK Varnamo end in a draw? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Hungary vs. Andorra: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Sandvikens IF vs. Falkenbergs FF end in a draw? Jun 09 $2 −$1 -98%
Russia vs. Trinidad and Tobago: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Cambodia vs. Hong Kong SAR end in a draw? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5 Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Liverpool Montevideo vs. Cerro Largo FC end in a draw? Jun 08 $2 +$5 +234%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 204.5 Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 84% −$67
other 16% −$28
weather 0% −$14
world 0% −$4
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5) BUY Kansas City Royals 25¢ $2 1h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 29¢ $2 1h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 27¢ $2 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 30¢ $2 2h
Spread: New York Mets (-2.5) BUY New York Mets 26¢ $2 2h
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5) BUY Baltimore Orioles 30¢ $2 2h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $6 3h
Derry City FC vs. Bohemians Dublin FC: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 99¢ $5 4h
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 27¢ $2 6h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 6h
Derry City FC vs. Bohemians Dublin FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 31¢ $2 6h
Shelbourne FC vs. Shamrock Rovers: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 29¢ $2 6h
Saint Patrick´s Athletic FC vs. Drogheda United FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 30¢ $2 6h
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire: O/U 170.5 SELL Over 99¢ $5 20h
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire: O/U 170.5 BUY Over 50¢ $2 23h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 BUY Under 28¢ $2 23h
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5 SELL Under 99¢ $7 25h
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 26¢ $2 25h
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 29¢ $0 30h
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 29¢ $1 30h
Mexico to score first vs. South Africa? BUY No 29¢ $2 30h
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 30¢ $2 30h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 31¢ $2 30h
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 28¢ $2 31h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 SELL Under 99¢ $5 44h
Will SC Recife vs. Athletic Club end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 46h
Will Grêmio Novorizontino win on 2026-06-10? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 47h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 30¢ $2 2d
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5) BUY Colorado Rockies 26¢ $2 2d
Will SC Recife vs. Athletic Club end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 112 +7.8% -2.5% 32% 32% -3.2%
≤30d 852 +0.7% -8.9% 33% 32% -9.1%
≤90d 1714 -0.9% -10.3% 43% 40% -11.4%
all 1714 -0.9% -10.3% 43% 40% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover40.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.3% 40% -11.4%
10% ← realistic here -18.9% 38% -19.8%
15% -26.7% 35% -27.6%
20% -33.9% 33% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.28 · official $21.96 · 3063 history records