Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:17:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2C 0x2c7f…0873 crypto 165 markets active 2h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$47,787 (-23%) realized −$47,737 · open −$50
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate58%95W / 69L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,268per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$46
7 days−$417
14 days−$880
30 days−$880
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 82% −$37,339
sports 15% −$9,894
crypto 2% −$558
other 1% −$296
economics 0% +$23
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -3.5% -12.7% 46% 46% -40.2%
≤30d 27 -24.7% -31.9% 37% 33% -42.3%
≤90d 27 -24.7% -31.9% 37% 33% -42.3%
all 164 -11.6% -20.0% 58% 34% -31.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.0% 34% -31.0%
10% -27.7% 30% -37.6%
15% -34.6% 26% -43.7%
20% -41.0% 21% -49.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$72 vs −$795 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$47,737
Unrealized−$50
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses95 / 69
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)164 / 165
History coverage149d
Avg bet$1,268
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 164 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany leading at halftime? Yes 51¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 60 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 20 $53 +$46 +86%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $302 −$300 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $202 −$200 -99%
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $10 +$1 +12%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $51 +$53 +105%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 +$94 +307%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $202 +$221 +109%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $37 +$13 +35%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $28 +$19 +70%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $304 −$300 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$107 +105%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $50 −$50 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Draw at halftime? Jun 12 $51 +$55 +109%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $31 −$30 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $409 −$35 -8%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $5 $0 +3%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 11 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? Mar 03 $250 +$196 +79%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $42,267 −$27,844 -66%
Will the USA Stars team win the 2026 NBA All-Star Game? Feb 15 $9,500 −$9,500 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026? Feb 15 $9,284 +$216 +2%
Will the US not strike Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 14 $8,416 −$8,416 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? Feb 13 $7,826 −$2,817 -36%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 13 $3,695 −$2,157 -58%
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? Feb 13 $42,847 +$2,173 +5%
Mavericks vs. Lakers Feb 13 $2,194 +$92 +4%
Spurs vs. Warriors Feb 12 $2,146 +$8 +0%
Grizzlies vs. Nuggets Feb 12 $1,982 +$65 +3%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Feb 12 $80 −$53 -66%
Clippers vs. Rockets Feb 12 $2,007 +$104 +5%
US strikes Iran by February 11, 2026? Feb 11 $6,699 +$110 +2%
Pacers vs. Knicks Feb 11 $13 −$13 -100%
76ers vs. Trail Blazers Feb 10 $3,000 +$27 +1%
US strikes Iran by February 10, 2026? Feb 10 $6,620 +$79 +1%
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? Feb 10 $38,229 +$912 +2%
Grizzlies vs. Warriors Feb 10 $420 −$420 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Nuggets Feb 10 $300 −$300 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 8, 2026? Feb 09 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Feb 09 $253 +$24 +9%
Houston Cougars vs. BYU Cougars Feb 08 $384 +$8 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 3.5 Corners SELL Over 100¢ $99 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 53¢ $53 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $302 3d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 67¢ $101 3d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 67¢ $101 3d
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 89¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 4d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $51 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 5d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 6d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 95¢ $100 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 28¢ $51 6d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 74¢ $22 7d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 73¢ $15 7d
Switzerland leading at halftime? SELL Yes 96¢ $0 7d
Switzerland leading at halftime? SELL Yes 97¢ $39 7d
Switzerland leading at halftime? SELL Yes 97¢ $1 7d
Switzerland leading at halftime? SELL Yes 97¢ $1 7d
Switzerland leading at halftime? SELL Yes 97¢ $1 7d
Switzerland leading at halftime? SELL Yes 70¢ $4 7d
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 55¢ $28 7d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $51 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $51 7d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $203 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.05 · official $0.05 (match) · 689 history records