Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T11:08:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2C 0x2c7a…6875 world 101 markets active 2h ago coverage 157d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$31 (+0%) realized +$745 · open −$714
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate21%20W / 74L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$307per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$238now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1,279
14 days+$1,535
30 days+$1,535
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 86% +$2,416
sports 5% −$1,498
politics 4% −$517
finance 4% −$792
other 2% +$381
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-35.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +59.9% +44.6% 100% 100% +45.3%
≤30d 4 +59.2% +44.0% 75% 75% +49.8%
≤90d 84 -37.7% -43.6% 17% 17% -24.6%
all 94 -28.9% -35.7% 21% 21% -6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.7% 21% -6.1%
10% -41.8% 19% -15.1%
15% -47.5% 16% -23.3%
20% -52.6% 15% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -33% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$631 vs −$161 · ×3.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

157d coverage
Net worth$238
Realized+$745
Unrealized−$714
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses20 / 74
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions7
Markets (closed)94 / 101
History coverage157d
Avg bet$307
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $123 $104 −$19 (-16%)
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31? Yes 21¢ 72¢ $14 $48 +$34 (+251%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Yes 29¢ 2¢ $639 $35 −$604 (-95%)
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 28? Yes 14¢ 10¢ $50 $33 −$17 (-34%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Yes 6¢ 2¢ $33 $12 −$21 (-64%)
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $39 $5 −$34 (-87%)
Will USD be less than 1.5M Iranian rials on June 30? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $54 $1 −$53 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 24 $1,801 +$1,095 +61%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $311 +$183 +59%
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? Jun 16 $57 −$26 -46%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $173 +$283 +163%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? May 26 $1,284 −$502 -39%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 26 $472 −$284 -60%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $87 −$8 -9%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 26 $238 −$238 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7? May 26 $11 +$77 +669%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15? May 26 $261 +$1,427 +548%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $100 −$4 -4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 22 $189 −$105 -56%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 22 $380 −$120 -32%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 21 $420 −$320 -76%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? May 21 $175 −$149 -85%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 20? May 20 $136 −$136 -100%
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by May 31? May 20 $70 −$68 -96%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? May 20 $102 −$102 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 18 $652 −$632 -97%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 18 $84 −$81 -96%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 17 $71 −$71 -100%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 17 $748 +$125 +17%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 16 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 15? May 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 12 $466 −$466 -100%
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30? May 12 $1,293 +$1,607 +124%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 11 $56 −$54 -96%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 03 $464 +$87 +19%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? Apr 30 $30 −$30 -100%
Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by April 30? Apr 29 $89 −$89 -100%
Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by April 30? Apr 29 $14 +$49 +352%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by April 30? Apr 25 $58 −$58 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 25 $1,498 −$1,498 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? Apr 21 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by Ap Apr 19 $22 −$22 -100%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026? Apr 19 $24 −$24 -100%
Will USD reach 1.6M Iranian rials by March 31? Apr 19 $65 −$65 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? Apr 19 $442 −$442 -100%
Will 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12? Apr 19 $183 −$183 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026? Apr 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Iran leadership change by March 31? Apr 19 $221 −$137 -62%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Apr 19 $136 −$136 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? Apr 19 $59 −$59 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Apr 19 $52 −$52 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Apr 19 $250 −$250 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? Apr 19 $46 −$46 -100%
Will another country strike Iran by March 31? Apr 19 $181 −$181 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of February? Apr 19 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026? Apr 19 $423 −$423 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 28? BUY Yes 14¢ $50 1h
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 2d
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 2d
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $11 2d
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 2d
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $7 2d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $10 4d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 5d
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $13 5d
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $16 5d
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 5d
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $9 5d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 5d
Will USD be less than 1.5M Iranian rials on June 30? BUY Yes 15¢ $56 5d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $7 6d
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31? BUY Yes 21¢ $11 7d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 33¢ $66 7d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 7d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 28¢ $0 7d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 28¢ $0 7d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 28¢ $0 7d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 28¢ $0 7d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 28¢ $0 7d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 28¢ $0 7d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 28¢ $0 7d
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 62¢ $311 7d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $526 7d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $10 7d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $294 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $237.73 · official $237.73 (match) · 850 history records