Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:19:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
2C 0x2c79…a630 other 98 markets active 1h ago coverage 462d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$29 (+0%) realized +$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate46%44W / 52L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$126per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$189now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$9
14 days+$9
30 days+$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% +$32
other 26% +$8
politics 12% +$3
economics 8% +$1
sports 7% −$13
finance 2% +$1
crypto 0% −$1
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)+9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.1% -9.4% 11% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 25 +79.8% +62.7% 28% 8% -8.6%
≤90d 39 +51.2% +36.8% 38% 5% -9.3%
all 96 +20.6% +9.1% 46% 3% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.1% 3% -9.3%
10% -1.3% 2% -18.0%
15% -10.8% 1% -25.9%
20% -19.6% 1% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +0% → late +41% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.46 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

462d coverage
Net worth$189
Realized+$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses44 / 52
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions2
Markets (closed)96 / 98
History coverage462d
Avg bet$126
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 76¢ 76¢ $188 $188 +$0 (+0%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $149 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $175 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $189 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $208 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $9 $0 +0%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 11 $175 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $181 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $10 $0 -4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 08 $188 +$10 +6%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $583 +$1 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $9 −$1 -6%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $340 +$6 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $141 −$11 -8%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $182 +$5 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 31 $179 +$3 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $179 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $79 −$20 -25%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 30 $74 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $197 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 26 $220 −$4 -2%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 25 $3 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 22 $205 +$15 +8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 21 $149 +$37 +25%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $167 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 16 $83 $0 -0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $427 $0 +0%
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most Apr 26 $87 −$5 -5%
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam Apr 25 $95 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Apr 24 $97 +$1 +1%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W Apr 24 $6 $0 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 22 $53 +$1 +2%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 17 $51 +$2 +4%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $342 −$13 -4%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $1,100 +$6 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 16 $999 +$1 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 15 $2,107 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 15 $1,008 −$9 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $533 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $102 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 21 $6 $0 -0%
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 21 $0 $0 -26%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 21 $2 $0 -1%
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Aug 21 $16 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Aug 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Aug 21 $11 $0 +1%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 21 $2 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 21 $4 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31? Aug 20 $1 $0 -2%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 20 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 76¢ $188 1h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $149 12h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $149 12h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $56 24h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $113 24h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $169 25h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $124 30h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $51 30h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $175 32h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $28 42h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $111 42h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $51 42h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $171 44h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $18 44h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 95¢ $207 45h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $208 46h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $9 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 3d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $175 4d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $175 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 29¢ $10 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 29¢ $171 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 29¢ $181 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $3 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $25 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $25 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $52 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $6 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $97 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $188.96 · official $188.48 (match) · 374 history records