Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:17:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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2C 0x2c78…aad1 sports 1719 markets active 2h ago coverage 113d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 112d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$6,075 (-3%) realized −$6,062 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%904W / 890L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$108per market
Trades / day29.3pace
Fees−$1,205est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,936
7 days−$3,051
14 days−$1,504
30 days−$367
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$1,385
other 9% −$3,004
crypto 5% −$595
world 0% +$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 263 -46.3% -51.4% 32% 32% -37.2%
≤30d 597 -13.5% -21.7% 51% 51% -10.4%
≤90d 1471 -10.8% -19.3% 50% 50% -15.0%
all 1794 -9.6% -18.2% 50% 50% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.2% 50% -13.5%
10% ← realistic here -26.0% 48% -21.8%
15% -33.1% 43% -29.4%
20% -39.7% 33% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$68 vs −$79 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$6,062
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses904 / 890
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$1,205
Open positions6
Markets (closed)1794 / 1719
History coverage113d ⚠
Avg bet$108
Trades / day29.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 1794 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner TheMongolz 61¢ 60¢ $26 $25 −$1 (-2%)
Will The MongolZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+12%)
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-9%)
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-10%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Saigon Warriors 46¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 494 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Raptors vs. Wizards Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-11? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Cavaliers vs. 76ers Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-01-16? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-01-21? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
LoL: Oh My God vs LNG Esports (BO5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Melbourne Victory FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC end in a dra Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-01-25? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Cup Group Stage Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-01-25? Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Weibo Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-01-18? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bucks vs. Lakers Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-07? Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Melbourne City FC win on 2026-01-30? Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Warriors vs. Jazz Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-12? Jun 15 $60 −$60 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Ultra Prime vs LNG Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: T1 Academy vs HANJIN BRION Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
76ers vs. Pelicans Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-01-19? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Wellington Phoenix FC win on 2026-02-13? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Lakers vs. Clippers Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bulls vs. Nets Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
LoL: Ultra Prime vs Oh My God - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Al Taawoun Saudi Club win on 2026-01-26? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Rockets vs. Knicks Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Jazz vs. Clippers Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs DN Freecs - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Weibo Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Weibo Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $80 −$80 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO3) Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Kings vs. Knicks Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Lakers vs. Knicks Jun 15 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-01-26? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Macarthur FC win on 2026-02-06? Jun 15 $378 −$378 -100%
LoL: LGD Gaming vs Ultra Prime - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-02-06? Jun 15 $300 −$300 -100%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Toulouse FC win on 2026-02-15? Jun 15 $48 −$48 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 61¢ $26 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner BUY Saigon Warriors 49¢ $4 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner BUY Saigon Warriors 44¢ $8 1h
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 4h
Will The MongolZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 4h
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 4h
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 4h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 5h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 6h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $16 9h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 58¢ $5 13h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 58¢ $4 13h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $25 13h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 55¢ $5 14h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 32¢ $0 14h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 14h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $20 14h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 100¢ $13 14h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 55¢ $5 14h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 54¢ $9 14h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 46¢ $8 14h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 47¢ $9 14h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $32 14h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 70¢ $9 15h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 100¢ $9 15h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 50¢ $16 16h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 18¢ $1 16h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner SELL Vitality 78¢ $6 16h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 54¢ $5 16h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $6 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.81 · official $33.23 (match) · 3500 history records