Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:47:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
2C 0x2c75…65cc other 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$682 (+19%) realized +$686 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%4W / 5L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$365per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$602now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% +$823
sports 37% −$188
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +4.1% -5.8% 44% 44% +9.6%
≤30d 9 +4.1% -5.8% 44% 44% +9.6%
≤90d 9 +4.1% -5.8% 44% 44% +9.6%
all 9 +4.1% -5.8% 44% 44% +9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.8% 44% +9.6%
10% -14.8% 33% -0.9%
15% -23.0% 33% -10.5%
20% -30.6% 33% -19.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 67% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$284 vs −$99 · ×2.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.29 per $1 lost it wins $2.29
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$602
Realized+$686
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses4 / 5
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage3d
Avg bet$365
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $606 $602 −$4 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $356 −$13 -4%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $196 +$465 +237%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $105 +$136 +129%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $277 −$272 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $1,375 +$235 +17%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $197 −$193 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $518 +$300 +58%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 20 $8 −$7 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $612 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score SELL No 61¢ $343 3h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 62¢ $356 4h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $661 15h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 29¢ $98 16h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 29¢ $98 16h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $105 25h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $277 29h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 32¢ $197 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $573 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 68¢ $786 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $801 3d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $818 3d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $518 3d
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo BUY Team Nemesis 0¢ $10 3d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 3d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $7 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $601.72 · official $601.72 (match) · 19 history records