Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:57:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2C 0x2c6f…deee sports 144 markets active 1h ago coverage 304d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$1,769 (-1%) realized +$567 · open −$2,336
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate45%55W / 66L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$933per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Fees−$201est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$17,496now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$1,885
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 31% −$1,148
politics 23% +$39
world 23% −$149
sports 20% −$2,223
tech 1% −$277
crypto 0% +$169
finance 0% +$39
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -3.0% -12.3% 0% 0% -12.3%
≤30d 6 -10.4% -19.0% 50% 33% +9.1%
≤90d 75 -1.0% -10.4% 43% 25% -10.8%
all 121 +3.4% -6.4% 45% 26% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 26% -10.7%
10% -15.4% 21% -19.2%
15% -23.6% 14% -27.0%
20% -31.1% 12% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$760) neutral
Persistence
early +3% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
12.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$143 vs −$137 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

304d coverage
Net worth$17,496
Realized+$567
Unrealized−$2,336
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses55 / 66
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$201
Open positions23
Markets (closed)121 / 144
History coverage304d
Avg bet$933
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 74¢ 92¢ $7,700 $9,460 +$1,761 (+23%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 61¢ 53¢ $3,979 $3,466 −$513 (-13%)
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? Yes 70¢ 80¢ $1,832 $2,113 +$280 (+15%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 24¢ 12¢ $1,798 $873 −$926 (-51%)
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 20¢ 16¢ $721 $596 −$125 (-17%)
Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season? Yes 20¢ $726 $287 −$439 (-61%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 38¢ 61¢ $101 $164 +$63 (+62%)
Will the Republican Party win the FL-25 House seat? No 61¢ 64¢ $93 $98 +$5 (+6%)
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 18¢ $255 $89 −$166 (-65%)
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-14 House seat? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $78 $77 −$1 (-2%)
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes 25¢ 38¢ $40 $61 +$22 (+54%)
Will Catalina Lauf be the Republican nominee for FL-19? Yes 46¢ 56¢ $41 $50 +$9 (+21%)
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-25 House seat? No 39¢ 38¢ $39 $38 −$0 (-1%)
Will Jay Feely be the Republican nominee for AZ-01? Yes 71¢ 77¢ $36 $38 +$3 (+8%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 10¢ $35 $30 −$5 (-15%)
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Yes 40¢ 52¢ $18 $23 +$5 (+29%)
Will Mallory McMorrow win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? Yes 57¢ $216 $17 −$199 (-92%)
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 10¢ $64 $6 −$58 (-90%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 75¢ 86¢ $4 $4 +$1 (+15%)
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? No 20¢ 20¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Michael Blake be the Democratic nominee for NY-15? Yes 12¢ $10 $2 −$9 (-85%)
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 73¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-23%)
Will Kim Farington be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? Yes 18¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+495%)
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-69%)
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes $2 $0 −$1 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mike Collins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? Jun 17 $10 $0 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $2,982 +$1,275 +43%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $560 −$163 -29%
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 30 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 27 $3,286 +$574 +18%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 21 $2,282 +$215 +9%
Will Amy McGrath be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kentucky? May 20 $390 +$69 +18%
Will Kyle Sweetser be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Alabama? May 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13? May 19 $45 $0 +0%
Will Zachary Shrewsbury be the Democratic nominee for Senate in West V May 15 $21 −$8 -39%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 11 $465 −$15 -3%
Thunder vs. Suns May 02 $8 −$8 -100%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers May 02 $105 −$105 -100%
Lakers vs. Rockets May 02 $504 −$356 -71%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 30 $241 +$126 +52%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 29 $45 −$1 -3%
Oilers vs. Ducks Apr 27 $255 +$299 +117%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 26 $995 +$786 +79%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $358 −$298 -83%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 24 $73 +$20 +28%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 23 $1,036 −$385 -37%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 22 $12 +$29 +240%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 22 $213 +$55 +26%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 22 $76 +$723 +950%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 21 $8 +$17 +216%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 21 $140 +$41 +29%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 19 $254 −$254 -100%
Sharks vs. Jets Apr 17 $70 −$6 -8%
Ducks vs. Predators Apr 17 $251 −$130 -52%
Stars vs. Sabres Apr 16 $593 −$345 -58%
Red Wings vs. Panthers Apr 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? Apr 16 $848 −$71 -8%
Heat vs. Hornets Apr 15 $240 −$240 -100%
Penguins vs. Blues Apr 15 $821 +$9 +1%
Hornets vs. Knicks Apr 14 $137 −$25 -18%
Wizards vs. Cavaliers Apr 14 $1,117 −$165 -15%
Magic vs. Celtics Apr 14 $560 −$560 -100%
Hawks vs. Heat Apr 14 $1,164 −$767 -66%
Bruins vs. Blue Jackets Apr 14 $3 +$3 +117%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 14 $1,296 +$57 +4%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 14 $393 −$19 -5%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $755 +$45 +6%
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $788 +$56 +7%
Wild vs. Stars Apr 10 $97 −$50 -51%
Penguins vs. Devils Apr 10 $61 +$52 +85%
Flyers vs. Red Wings Apr 10 $432 +$368 +85%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $34 −$34 -100%
Oilers vs. Sharks Apr 09 $282 −$282 -100%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $485 +$337 +70%
Timberwolves vs. Pacers Apr 09 $112 −$112 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 10¢ $35 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 86¢ $1,017 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 86¢ $19 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 85¢ $61 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 85¢ $70 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 85¢ $53 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 86¢ $65 12h
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? BUY No 20¢ $3 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 15¢ $180 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 78¢ $39 41h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 78¢ $117 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 70¢ $1,050 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 88¢ $879 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 69¢ $1,016 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 69¢ $19 4d
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 4d
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $44 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 72¢ $343 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 72¢ $377 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 68¢ $452 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 68¢ $102 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 68¢ $11 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 68¢ $113 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 17¢ $47 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 13¢ $13 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 13¢ $11 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 15¢ $32 4d
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17,495.80 · official $17,488.53 (match) · 2453 history records