Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:17:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2C 0x2c6a…d012 other 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 183d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$104 (-24%) realized −$105 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate50%16W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$171now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$99
world 29% +$2
tech 8% +$1
crypto 5% −$2
sports 1% +$1
economics 2% −$4
politics 1% −$3
finance 0% +$1
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-41.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 2 -39.0% -44.8% 50% 50% -44.8%
all 32 -35.7% -41.8% 50% 34% -46.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.8% 34% -46.9%
10% -47.4% 25% -52.0%
15% -52.5% 12% -56.6%
20% -57.1% 6% -60.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 80% · top 2 84% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -39% too few recent
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -72% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$8 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

183d coverage
Net worth$171
Realized−$105
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses16 / 16
Open positions6
Markets (closed)32 / 38
History coverage183d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Warsh say "Job Market" during June Press Conference? Yes 65¢ 61¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
Will Warsh say "I Don't Know" during June Press Conference? Yes 26¢ 31¢ $40 $47 +$7 (+17%)
Will Warsh say "Artificial Intelligence" or "AI" during June Press Conference? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Warsh say "Trend" during June Press Conference? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Warsh say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during June Press Conference? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-10%)
Will Warsh say "Asymmetric" during June Press Conference? Yes 28¢ 26¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? May 11 $100 +$22 +22%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 10 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Oly Feb 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Men's Quarterfinals - Canada vs. Czechia Feb 18 $4 +$1 +28%
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? Feb 18 $1 $0 +25%
Will Powell say "Trump" during January press conference? Feb 18 $1 $0 +27%
Will Powell say "Not our job" during January press conference? Feb 18 $1 $0 +45%
Will Kanye release BULLY by January 30? Jan 28 $1 $0 +35%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? Jan 28 $1 $0 +7%
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex de Minaur Jan 28 $1 $0 +3%
Australian Open Men's: Ben Shelton vs Jannik Sinner Jan 28 $1 $0 +11%
Will Powell say "Stock Market" during January press conference? Jan 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of January 5 above $320? Jan 27 $1 +$1 +122%
Crude Oil (CL) Up or Down on January 5? Jan 06 $1 +$1 +70%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Jan 04 $1 $0 +7%
Will Debí Tirar Más Fotos (Bad Bunny) win Album of the Year at the 68t Jan 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 40 Jan 04 $1 $0 +25%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Jan 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? Jan 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Santa deliver between 8,200,000,000 and 8,300,000,000 gifts for C Jan 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Santa deliver more than 8,400,000,000 gifts for Christmas 2025? Jan 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump remove his Rob Reiner post? Jan 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Thailand x Cambodia ceasefire by December 31? Jan 04 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by January 31, 2026? Jan 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Maduro out by December 31, 2026? Jan 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $10 mi Jan 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Indiana win the 2026 College Football National Championship? Jan 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by January 31? Jan 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in 2025? Jan 03 $1 $0 +7%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jan 03 $2 $0 +10%
Will Anthony Joshua win his boxing match against Jake Paul? Dec 20 $2 $0 +14%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Dec 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Warsh say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 1h
Will Warsh say "Trend" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 43¢ $20 1h
Will Warsh say "Artificial Intelligence" or "AI" during June Press Con BUY Yes 68¢ $30 1h
Will Warsh say "Job Market" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 1h
Will Warsh say "Asymmetric" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 1h
Will Warsh say "I Don't Know" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 26¢ $41 1h
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 82¢ $100 67d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 78¢ $100 67d
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Oly BUY Yes 55¢ $5 118d
Men's Quarterfinals - Canada vs. Czechia BUY Canada 78¢ $4 118d
Will Powell say "Trump" during January press conference? BUY No 79¢ $1 139d
Will Kanye release BULLY by January 30? SELL No 94¢ $1 139d
Will Powell say "Not our job" during January press conference? BUY No 69¢ $1 139d
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? SELL No 92¢ $1 139d
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $1 139d
Will Powell say "Stock Market" during January press conference? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 139d
Will Kanye release BULLY by January 30? BUY No 69¢ $1 141d
Australian Open Men's: Ben Shelton vs Jannik Sinner BUY Sinner 90¢ $1 141d
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex de Minaur BUY Alcaraz 97¢ $1 141d
Crude Oil (CL) Up or Down on January 5? BUY Up 59¢ $1 164d
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap SELL Yes 9¢ $1 164d
Will Debí Tirar Más Fotos (Bad Bunny) win Album of the Year at the 68t BUY No 48¢ $1 164d
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of January 5 above $320? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 164d
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 40 SELL No 49¢ $1 164d
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 40 BUY No 39¢ $1 164d
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap BUY Yes 8¢ $1 164d
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $10 mi BUY No 71¢ $1 164d
Will Indiana win the 2026 College Football National Championship? BUY No 56¢ $1 164d
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by January 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 164d
Thailand x Cambodia ceasefire by December 31? BUY No 76¢ $1 181d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $171.20 · official $171.20 (match) · 66 history records