Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T19:02:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2C 0x2c66…01d9 other 113 markets active 1h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$199 (-1%) realized −$240 · open +$41
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate58%71W / 52L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$336per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$2,089now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$81
7 days+$26
14 days+$42
30 days+$59
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% +$9
crypto 20% +$12
finance 5% +$2
sports 2% −$435
politics 2% +$2
world 1% +$5
economics 1% +$3
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +40.9% +27.5% 26% 9% -9.3%
≤30d 64 +21.1% +9.6% 52% 5% -9.3%
≤90d 123 +0.3% -9.3% 58% 7% -11.0%
all 123 +0.3% -9.3% 58% 7% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 7% -11.0%
10% -18.0% 7% -19.6%
15% -25.9% 5% -27.3%
20% -33.1% 2% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -22% → late +23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$17 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$2,089
Realized−$240
Unrealized+$41
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses71 / 52
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions51
Markets (closed)123 / 113
History coverage63d
Avg bet$336
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 51 History 123 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $690 $693 +$3 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $597 $595 −$2 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $507 $504 −$3 (-1%)
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $60 $60 +$0 (+0%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $18 $32 +$14 (+77%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $17 $31 +$15 (+88%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+7%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 18¢ $2 $18 +$17 (+1007%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $13 $18 +$5 (+35%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $21 $18 −$4 (-18%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $23 $16 −$7 (-30%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 14¢ $2 $14 +$12 (+719%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 13¢ $2 $13 +$11 (+671%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 12¢ $2 $12 +$10 (+605%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 7¢ $2 $7 +$6 (+341%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 7¢ $2 $7 +$5 (+299%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-37%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 6¢ $2 $6 +$4 (+251%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+137%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-56%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-49%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-67%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-67%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-73%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Peru win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 19 $593 +$6 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $1,200 +$9 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $1,079 +$4 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $324 +$3 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $372 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $1,727 +$14 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $110 +$28 +26%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $1,773 +$54 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $829 +$3 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $898 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $897 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $897 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $2,667 +$6 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $890 +$6 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $1,394 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $424 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $295 +$5 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5? Jun 04 $444 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $89 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $495 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $596 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 3? Jun 02 $499 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 3? Jun 02 $273 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on May 29? May 29 $300 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $690 1h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $51 4h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $234 4h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $313 4h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $597 11h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $508 11h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $598 25h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $63 25h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1 25h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1 25h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $545 25h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $593 2d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $60 2d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $448 2d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $5 2d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $5 2d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $5 2d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $5 2d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $5 2d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $5 2d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $5 2d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $6 2d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $5 2d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $5 2d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $6 2d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $5 2d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $5 2d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $5 2d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $5 2d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,089.40 · official $2,089.66 (match) · 534 history records