Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:54:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2C 0x2c63…bb21 world 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 303d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate30%12W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% −$5
other 19% $0
politics 19% $0
crypto 13% +$1
tech 10% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -1.7% -11.1% 25% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 13 -2.6% -11.9% 23% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 13 -2.6% -11.9% 23% 0% -10.5%
all 40 -0.8% -10.2% 30% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

303d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses12 / 28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage303d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 23 $33 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $32 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 22 $3 $0 +2%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 21 $58 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 19 $79 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $11 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $35 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 18 $15 −$2 -15%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 15 $35 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $32 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $11 −$2 -21%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $41 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $40 $0 +0%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Oct 21 $4 $0 +9%
Putin out as President of Russia in 2025? Sep 02 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Sep 02 $39 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 02 $8 $0 -2%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by September 30? Sep 02 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 02 $4 $0 -5%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Sep 02 $34 $0 +0%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 US Open? Aug 29 $37 $0 +0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 28 $37 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 28 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 28 $37 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Aug 28 $37 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 27 $39 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $2.00 in August? Aug 26 $39 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 26 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Aug 26 $5 $0 -2%
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31? Aug 26 $28 $0 +1%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 26 $7 $0 -0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 26 $32 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by August 31? Aug 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 240–254 times August 22–August 29? Aug 25 $34 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 25 $37 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $115K and $117K on August 25? Aug 25 $28 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 25 $38 $0 +0%
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? Aug 25 $39 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 93¢ $33 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 93¢ $33 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $32 8h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $32 10h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $3 36h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $30 44h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $29 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $9 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $20 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $29 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $11 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $9 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $3 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $35 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $35 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $35 7d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $35 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 73¢ $18 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 73¢ $15 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 73¢ $12 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 73¢ $20 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 18¢ $7 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 18¢ $6 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $15 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 23¢ $9 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 29¢ $11 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.78 · official $0.00 (match) · 124 history records