Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:21:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
2C 0x2c62…9ba2 other 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 67d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$273 (+11%) realized +$205 · open +$68
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +24% what you keep after slip
Net edge+24%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate80%4W / 1L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$184per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit21%portable
Net worth$2,267now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days+$195
14 days+$195
30 days+$195
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% +$87
sports 4% +$176
crypto 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+23.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +62.4% +46.9% 100% 67% +37.9%
≤30d 3 +62.4% +46.9% 100% 67% +37.9%
≤90d 5 +36.7% +23.7% 80% 60% +37.4%
all 5 +36.7% +23.7% 80% 60% +37.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +23.7% 60% +37.4%
10% +11.9% 40% +24.3%
15% +1.1% 40% +12.3%
20% -8.8% 40% +1.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 88% · top 2 97% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +52% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +37% · $-wt +52% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$3 · ×18.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×74.1 per $1 lost it wins $74.1
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$2,267
Realized+$205
Unrealized+$68
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses4 / 1
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions9
Markets (closed)5 / 14
History coverage67d
Avg bet$184
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit21%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $432 $495 +$63 (+15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $467 $369 −$98 (-21%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $303 $345 +$42 (+14%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $239 $316 +$77 (+32%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $185 $216 +$31 (+17%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $231 $179 −$52 (-23%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $142 $151 +$9 (+7%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? No 80¢ 80¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $130 +$17 +13%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $102 +$176 +172%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $140 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Apr 12 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Apr 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 80¢ $101 2h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 88¢ $130 37h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $102 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 99¢ $140 5d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $142 66d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $185 66d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $231 66d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $239 66d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $303 66d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $432 66d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $467 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $3 67d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,266.62 · official $2,266.62 (match) · 88 history records