Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T20:21:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2C 0x2c60…01fe sports 115 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (137 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$173 (-6%) realized −$156 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate44%50W / 64L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day136.8pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$372now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% −$167
other 33% +$9
crypto 17% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (137 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 114 -5.0% -14.1% 44% 39% -16.3%
≤30d 114 -5.0% -14.1% 44% 39% -16.3%
≤90d 114 -5.0% -14.1% 44% 39% -16.3%
all 114 -5.0% -14.1% 44% 39% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover136.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.1% 39% -16.3%
10% ← realistic here -22.3% 37% -24.3%
15% -29.8% 32% -31.7%
20% -36.7% 28% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$12 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$372
Realized−$156
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses50 / 64
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions3
Markets (closed)114 / 115
History coverage3d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day136.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 114 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 55¢ 56¢ $328 $333 +$5 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO - Map 2 Winner ECHO 54¢ 72¢ $29 $39 +$10 (+33%)
Counter-Strike: Game Hunters vs Vexa (BO3) - CCT South America Series 3 Group Stage Vexa 54¢ 0¢ $31 $0 −$31 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Jun 27 $14 −$14 -100%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner Jun 27 $9 −$8 -88%
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 27 $30 +$27 +91%
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Mai Jun 27 $84 −$42 -50%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 27 $31 −$31 -100%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 27 $30 +$22 +72%
UFC Fight Night: Javier Reyes vs. Kaan Ofli (Featherweight, Prelims) Jun 27 $10 +$20 +201%
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea Jun 27 $21 −$21 -100%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Jun 27 $22 −$22 -100%
Counter-Strike: Just Players vs OlyBet SB (BO3) - CCT Europe Challenge Jun 27 $42 −$3 -6%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 27 $82 −$81 -99%
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan P Jun 27 $41 −$41 -99%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Academy vs SAW (BO3) - European Pro Leagu Jun 27 $17 +$8 +43%
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner Jun 27 $10 +$14 +137%
Will 4 Anchors and Ilmeria Qualify to The International 2026 Jun 27 $21 −$21 -99%
Will GamerLegion Qualify to The International 2026 Jun 27 $43 −$13 -31%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $129 +$3 +2%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $10 +$7 +73%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $31 +$6 +21%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 26 $143 −$12 -8%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $15 −$1 -8%
Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug (BO3) - The International Nor Jun 26 $21 +$31 +149%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $31 −$30 -99%
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Yawara Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 26 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Yawara Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Yawara Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $10 +$14 +137%
France leading at halftime? Jun 26 $5 +$4 +72%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $212 +$72 +34%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 26 $21 −$21 -100%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dracula Jun 26 $10 +$7 +68%
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 26 $21 −$20 -98%
Piracicaba: Valerio Aboian vs Hernan Casanova Jun 26 $20 −$20 -99%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $21 −$20 -98%
Targu Mures: Felix Balshaw vs Andrej Nedic Jun 26 $20 +$6 +31%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Jun 26 $21 −$20 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $30 +$6 +20%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $20 −$2 -9%
Counter-Strike: Clutchain Female vs MIBR fe (BO3) - Rainhas do Clutch Jun 26 $5 +$8 +157%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $5 +$2 +46%
Japan vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $5 +$5 +107%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $5 +$5 +95%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Jun 25 $5 +$4 +68%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 25 $5 +$4 +75%
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $5 +$9 +185%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Betclic Apogee Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO - Map 2 Winner BUY ECHO 54¢ $30 33m
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Rafael Fiziev 100¢ $28 1h
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Rafael Fiziev 100¢ $30 1h
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Rafael Fiziev 51¢ $30 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $56 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $167 1h
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Mai SELL Shara Magomedov 100¢ $3 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $78 1h
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Mai SELL Shara Magomedov 100¢ $40 1h
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Mai BUY Shara Magomedov 95¢ $41 1h
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Mai BUY Michel Pereira 24¢ $43 1h
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Under 49¢ $7 2h
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Under 49¢ $24 2h
O/U 2.5 Rounds SELL Under 99¢ $10 2h
O/U 2.5 Rounds SELL Under 99¢ $42 2h
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Under 56¢ $30 2h
Counter-Strike: Game Hunters vs Vexa (BO3) - CCT South America Series BUY Vexa 54¢ $31 3h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $32 4h
UFC Fight Night: Javier Reyes vs. Kaan Ofli (Featherweight, Prelims) SELL Kaan Ofli 99¢ $30 5h
UFC Fight Night: Javier Reyes vs. Kaan Ofli (Featherweight, Prelims) BUY Kaan Ofli 32¢ $10 5h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN BUY Sharks 56¢ $1 6h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN BUY Sharks 56¢ $10 6h
Counter-Strike: Just Players vs OlyBet SB (BO3) - CCT Europe Challenge SELL Just Players 50¢ $39 7h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY Natus Vincere 51¢ $40 7h
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan P BUY Johnny Speeds 78¢ $11 8h
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan P BUY Johnny Speeds 78¢ $4 8h
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan P BUY Johnny Speeds 78¢ $26 8h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Academy vs SAW (BO3) - European Pro Leagu SELL Inner Circle Academy 100¢ $25 9h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY Natus Vincere 75¢ $11 9h
Counter-Strike: Just Players vs OlyBet SB (BO3) - CCT Europe Challenge BUY Just Players 51¢ $10 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $372.06 · official $367.69 · 500 history records