Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:01:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
2C 0x2c60…d7d0 other 107 markets active 1h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate11%12W / 93L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$94now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% −$7
politics 14% −$2
economics 11% −$2
sports 6% +$1
crypto 1% +$1
culture 1% $0
world 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 15% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 105 -1.6% -11.0% 11% 8% -9.6%
all 105 -1.6% -11.0% 11% 8% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 8% -9.6%
10% -19.5% 8% -18.2%
15% -27.3% 8% -26.1%
20% -34.4% 7% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×6.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$94
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses12 / 93
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)105 / 107
History coverage91d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $130 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $68 $68 +$0 (+0%)
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 13 $23 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $19 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $204 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 09 $24 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $141 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $14 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $16 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? Jun 02 $32 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May? Jun 02 $50 $0 +0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $457 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? May 29 $19 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $425 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 23 $219 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 17 $354 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $118 $0 -0%
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 16 $116 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $465 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 12 $357 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 10 $119 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $236 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $354 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 06 $111 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $112 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $115 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 03 $117 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $108 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $319 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? May 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 29 $114 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 28 $229 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $230 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $114 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $119 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $117 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $114 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 18 $238 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $299 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $322 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $117 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $119 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $112 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 15 $244 $0 -0%
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 15 $123 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 14 $116 $0 -0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $114 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 13 $122 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 13 $124 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $119 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 12 $120 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 11 $320 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 1h
Will Solana reach $130 in June? BUY No 99¢ $68 33h
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $23 4d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $23 4d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $19 5d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $19 5d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $23 6d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $23 6d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $24 7d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $24 8d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $21 11d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $21 12d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $14 13d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $14 13d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $16 14d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $16 14d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $24 17d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $24 17d
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $19 18d
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $19 18d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? BUY No 99¢ $32 20d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $26 23d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $26 23d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $14 24d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $14 25d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $21 25d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $21 26d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May? BUY No 100¢ $50 27d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $110 30d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $110 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $93.70 · official $93.70 (match) · 318 history records