Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:04:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2C 0x2c5f…3b66 other 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1,351 (-29%) realized −$1,340 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate63%12W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$232per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$220now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$73
7 days−$1,572
14 days−$1,572
30 days−$1,572
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% −$1,064
other 42% −$294
sports 2% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-21.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -19.0% -26.7% 59% 41% -56.3%
≤30d 17 -19.0% -26.7% 59% 41% -56.3%
≤90d 17 -19.0% -26.7% 59% 41% -56.3%
all 19 -13.3% -21.5% 63% 42% -37.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.5% 42% -37.7%
10% -29.0% 37% -43.6%
15% -35.9% 21% -49.1%
20% -42.2% 11% -54.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 58% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -52% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$278 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$220
Realized−$1,340
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses12 / 7
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)19 / 20
History coverage118d
Avg bet$232
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by June 30? Yes 61¢ 58¢ $231 $220 −$11 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $202 +$34 +17%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $162 +$40 +24%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $131 +$32 +24%
Türkiye to score first vs. Australia? Jun 16 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $104 +$9 +8%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $32 +$9 +28%
Scotland to score first vs. Haiti? Jun 14 $23 +$10 +42%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $13 +$6 +46%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $34 −$21 -62%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $31 +$2 +5%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $442 −$410 -93%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-21? Jun 13 $91 −$91 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Jun 13 $1,152 −$1,152 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $204 +$232 +114%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $231 −$182 -79%
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? Feb 23 $1,200 +$99 +8%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-21? Feb 21 $164 +$102 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by June 30? BUY Yes 61¢ $236 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 84¢ $236 17h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $202 19h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 81¢ $202 21h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $162 22h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $131 25h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $112 46h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 92¢ $104 47h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $104 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 97¢ $100 2d
Türkiye to score first vs. Australia? BUY Yes 64¢ $41 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 99¢ $41 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 77¢ $32 3d
Scotland to score first vs. Haiti? SELL Yes 99¢ $32 3d
Scotland to score first vs. Haiti? BUY Yes 69¢ $23 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $18 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $13 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 23¢ $13 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $34 4d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $33 4d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 95¢ $31 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 6¢ $32 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $442 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $435 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $204 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 61¢ $50 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 12¢ $49 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $231 5d
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $24 110d
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $1,128 110d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $220.18 · official $220.18 (match) · 43 history records