Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:05:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2C 0x2c5e…53d3 other 197 markets active 0h ago coverage 613d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$888 (-11%) realized −$853 · open −$35
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate30%58W / 136L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$742now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$89
7 days+$89
14 days+$89
30 days+$133
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$391
sports 17% −$200
crypto 13% −$339
politics 6% +$39
weather 0% +$2
world 0% −$19
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-28.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -39.3% -45.1% 20% 20% -6.2%
≤30d 8 -39.6% -45.4% 25% 25% -5.1%
≤90d 10 -51.7% -56.3% 20% 20% -13.6%
all 194 -21.2% -28.7% 30% 27% -20.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.7% 27% -20.7%
10% -35.5% 22% -28.3%
15% -41.8% 20% -35.2%
20% -47.5% 17% -41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$19 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

613d coverage
Net worth$742
Realized−$853
Unrealized−$35
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses58 / 136
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions2
Markets (closed)194 / 197
History coverage613d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 194 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score No 67¢ 64¢ $775 $740 −$35 (-4%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 52 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $1,690 −$78 -5%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $605 +$231 +38%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $33 −$31 -93%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $62 −$23 -37%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $223 +$176 +79%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 30 $94 −$92 -98%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5) May 30 $41 −$40 -97%
Will Deportivo Alavés vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? May 13 $49 −$48 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $226 −$222 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-12? Feb 12 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-12-06? Dec 06 $221 −$221 -100%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-12-06? Dec 06 $128 +$93 +72%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025 Nov 09 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 12 $7 +$5 +66%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025 Oct 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 10 to October 17, 2025 Oct 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 10 to October 17, 2025 Oct 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 10 to October 17, 2025 Oct 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 10 to October 17, 2025 Oct 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2025-10-12? Oct 12 $35 +$3 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Oct 12 $46 −$46 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1 Oct 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in October 2025? Oct 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 10 to October 17, 2025 Oct 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with President of Finlan Oct 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025? Oct 09 $9 +$40 +440%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Javier Milei be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in October 2025? Oct 07 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in October 2025? Oct 07 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025? Oct 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025? Oct 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025? Oct 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025? Oct 06 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 720-759 tweets in October 2025? Oct 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025? Oct 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025? Oct 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025? Oct 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025? Oct 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025? Oct 06 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 202 Oct 06 $15 +$15 +99%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-10-05? Oct 05 $119 −$35 -29%
Will Villarreal win on 2025-10-04? Oct 04 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Real Madrid vs. Villarreal end in a draw? Oct 04 $80 −$80 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35-40 million views on day 1? Oct 04 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in October 2025? Oct 04 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 202 Oct 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY No 67¢ $783 20m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $784 20m
Spread: France (-2.5) AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Croa BUY 2¢ $5 23m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $831 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 95¢ $835 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $605 5h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $605 5h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 9¢ $10 23h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 28h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $8 28h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $26 28h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 3¢ $39 29h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $62 29h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $64 31h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $160 47h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $159 47h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $343 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 5d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $355 5d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 100¢ $399 23d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 55¢ $223 23d
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) BUY Paris Saint-Germain FC 20¢ $94 23d
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5) BUY Paris Saint-Germain FC 8¢ $41 23d
Will Deportivo Alavés vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $49 40d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? BUY Yes 21¢ $48 40d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? BUY Yes 43¢ $178 40d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-12? BUY Yes 3¢ $23 130d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-12? BUY Yes 3¢ $15 130d
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-12-06? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 198d
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-12-06? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 198d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $741.50 · official $752.06 · 468 history records