Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:35:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2C 0x2c5d…df97 crypto 51 markets active 1h ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$707 (+12%) realized +$705 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate53%26W / 23L
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$119per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$702now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 44% −$378
other 21% +$698
politics 19% +$170
world 13% +$224
sports 2% −$100
tech 2% +$82
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 3 +8.5% -1.9% 67% 67% +18.9%
all 49 -9.6% -18.2% 53% 49% +2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.2% 49% +2.2%
10% -26.0% 45% -7.6%
15% -33.2% 35% -16.5%
20% -39.7% 33% -24.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% too few recent
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +13% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$85 vs −$66 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.46 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$702
Realized+$705
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses26 / 23
Open positions2
Markets (closed)49 / 51
History coverage158d
Avg bet$119
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $500 $503 +$3 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Apr 19 $20 +$19 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Apr 19 $30 +$10 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Apr 19 $10 −$10 -96%
Peter Mandelson charged by March 31? Feb 21 $200 +$12 +6%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $10 mi Feb 16 $658 +$531 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Feb 14 $100 −$98 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Feb 14 $40 −$39 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Feb 14 $80 −$79 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Feb 12 $80 +$74 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Feb 12 $100 −$99 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Feb 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Feb 12 $60 −$60 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Feb 12 $100 +$104 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Feb 11 $2 −$1 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Feb 11 $120 −$120 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Feb 11 $120 −$118 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Feb 11 $120 −$119 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Feb 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Feb 10 $20 +$14 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Feb 10 $60 +$31 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Feb 10 $80 +$82 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Feb 10 $80 −$79 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Feb 10 $80 +$186 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Feb 10 $60 −$59 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Feb 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Feb 09 $60 +$41 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Feb 09 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Feb 09 $40 −$39 -99%
Will the Gatorade shower at Super Bowl LX be green/yellow? Feb 09 $100 +$104 +104%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 08 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Feb 08 $100 +$57 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Feb 08 $20 +$6 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Feb 07 $100 +$119 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Feb 07 $80 −$79 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Feb 07 $60 −$59 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Feb 07 $100 +$73 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Feb 07 $100 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Feb 07 $100 +$146 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Feb 06 $100 −$99 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Feb 05 $100 −$98 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-31? Jan 31 $100 +$62 +62%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on January 30? Jan 31 $100 +$82 +82%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January? Jan 30 $200 +$43 +22%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 30 $300 +$71 +24%
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 24? Jan 25 $160 +$75 +47%
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? Jan 21 $200 +$21 +10%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-01-17? Jan 17 $10 −$10 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026? Jan 16 $400 +$113 +28%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 14 $391 +$111 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $205 1h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 88¢ $502 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $20 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $30 58d
Peter Mandelson charged by March 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $212 115d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $20 122d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $80 122d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $40 122d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $20 123d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $20 123d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $40 123d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $20 124d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $20 124d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $20 124d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $60 124d
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $10 mi BUY Yes 50¢ $200 124d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $20 124d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $60 124d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $20 124d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $40 124d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $20 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $80 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $1 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $20 126d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $20 126d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $60 126d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $20 126d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $20 126d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $702.30 · official $702.30 (match) · 104 history records