Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:07:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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2C 0x2c5b…1218 crypto 162 markets active 14h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$97 (-14%) realized −$96 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate51%77W / 73L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day17.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$44
14 days−$44
30 days−$110
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% −$64
other 18% −$43
sports 4% −$4
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-25.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -30.7% -37.3% 16% 16% -53.6%
≤30d 150 -18.0% -25.8% 51% 26% -25.3%
≤90d 150 -18.0% -25.8% 51% 26% -25.3%
all 150 -18.0% -25.8% 51% 26% -25.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.8% 26% -25.3%
10% -32.9% 13% -32.5%
15% -39.4% 9% -39.0%
20% -45.3% 5% -45.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$96
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses77 / 73
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions12
Markets (closed)150 / 162
History coverage27d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day17.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 150 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 56¢ 57¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 56¢ 60¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 55¢ 54¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 41¢ 44¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 47¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-18%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 37¢ 8¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-80%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 -32%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +291%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$4 -80%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 $0 -4%
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 $0 -13%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 $0 -16%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 14 $1 $0 -31%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 $0 -8%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 $0 -1%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +59%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $6 $0 -8%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -99%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +37%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $6 −$4 -59%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $12 −$2 -18%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $9 −$7 -76%
Korea Republic to score first vs. Czechia? Jun 12 $1 $0 -30%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +20%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $2 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET May 29 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET May 28 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET May 28 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET May 28 $2 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET May 28 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET May 28 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET May 27 $7 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET May 27 $7 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET May 27 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 27 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 27 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 27 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 27 $7 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 27 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 27 $6 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 27 $7 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 27 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 27 $13 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 27 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 27 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 27 $2 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 27 $5 −$3 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 27 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 27 $17 −$7 -38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 13h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 47¢ $1 13h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 31h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $2 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 3d
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 3d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL Yes 22¢ $1 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 3d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $4 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $4 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $4 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 3d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 4d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 55¢ $4 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 56¢ $5 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 4d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $3 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 4d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $5 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $4 4d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.94 · official $37.94 (match) · 547 history records