Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:04:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
2C 0x2c5b…554f sports 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$91 (+7%) realized +$91 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%4W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$231per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% +$30
other 25% −$62
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -13.7% -21.9% 67% 67% -11.6%
≤30d 6 -13.7% -21.9% 67% 67% -11.6%
≤90d 6 -13.7% -21.9% 67% 67% -11.6%
all 6 -13.7% -21.9% 67% 67% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.9% 67% -11.6%
10% -29.4% 17% -20.0%
15% -36.2% 17% -27.8%
20% -42.5% 17% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 75% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$80 vs −$176 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$91
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage6d
Avg bet$231
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $246 +$42 +17%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $241 +$38 +16%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $299 +$188 +63%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 16 $253 −$253 -100%
O/U 0.5 Rounds Jun 16 $243 +$53 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 52¢ $102 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 93¢ $288 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 91¢ $279 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $241 10h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $246 10h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $487 25h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $299 37h
O/U 0.5 Rounds BUY Over 81¢ $243 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $253 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 11 history records