Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:42:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2C 0x2c5a…ef11 crypto 322 markets active 0h ago coverage 16d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 16d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (194 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$20,086 (+19%) realized +$20,086 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate52%166W / 156L
Whale WR31%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$327per market
Trades / day194.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 16d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$3,189
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (194 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 -9.6% -18.2% 65% 45% -17.2%
≤30d 322 +0.6% -9.0% 52% 39% -12.3%
≤90d 322 +0.6% -9.0% 52% 39% -12.3%
all 322 +0.6% -9.0% 52% 39% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover194.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.0% 39% -12.3%
10% ← realistic here -17.7% 29% -20.7%
15% -25.6% 17% -28.3%
20% -32.9% 9% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 31% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +9% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
9.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$86 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$20,086
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses166 / 156
Whale WR (big bets)31%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)322 / 322
History coverage16d ⚠
Avg bet$327
Trades / day194.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 322 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 20 $27 −$26 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$13 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 20 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 20 $17 +$3 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 20 $15 +$7 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 20 $25 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 20 $28 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 20 $47 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 20 $27 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 20 $35 +$7 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 20 $22 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 20 $60 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 20 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 20 $67 −$20 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 20 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 20 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 20 $29 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 20 $25 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 20 $15 +$8 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 20 $13 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 20 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 20 $11 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 20 $9 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 20 $16 +$9 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 20 $11 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 20 $6 +$5 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 20 $12 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 20 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 20 $18 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 20 $57 +$6 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 20 $18 +$12 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 20 $12 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 19 $48 +$16 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 19 $30 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 19 $13 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 19 $8 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 19 $23 +$12 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 19 $23 +$7 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 19 $11 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $27 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $10 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $13 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $17 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $15 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $25 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $22 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $60 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $23 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $42 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $27 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $13 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $18 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $11 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $9 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $25 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $15 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $13 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records