Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:36:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

2C 0x2c59…37f1 crypto 8 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover

Total PnL −$48 (-12%) realized −$48 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip

Net edge-26%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate75%6W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$51per market

Trades / day12.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-20.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	8	-11.8%	-20.2%	75%	0%	-20.2%
≤30d	8	-11.8%	-20.2%	75%	0%	-20.2%
≤90d	8	-11.8%	-20.2%	75%	0%	-20.2%
all	8	-11.8%	-20.2%	75%	0%	-20.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover12.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-20.2%	0%	-20.2%
10%	-27.8%	0%	-27.8%
15%	-34.8%	0%	-34.8%
20%	-41.2%	0%	-41.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 26% · top 2 52% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -12% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$1 vs −$27 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.1 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$48

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)75%

Wins / losses6 / 2

Open positions0

Markets (closed)8 / 8

History coverage1d

Avg bet$51

Trades / day12.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 8 Trades

no open positions

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Jun 18	$51	+$1	+3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Jun 18	$51	$0	+1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Jun 18	$51	$0	+1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	Jun 18	$51	+$1	+2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Jun 18	$51	+$1	+3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Jun 18	$51	+$1	+2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Jun 18	$51	−$40	-79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Jun 18	$51	−$13	-26%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	BUY Up	96¢	$51	16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	SELL Down	100¢	$51	31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	BUY Down	97¢	$51	32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	BUY Up	98¢	$51	41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	BUY Down	97¢	$51	51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	BUY Down	96¢	$51	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	SELL Up	100¢	$52	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	BUY Up	96¢	$51	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	SELL Up	22¢	$11	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	BUY Up	97¢	$51	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	SELL Up	74¢	$37	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	BUY Up	96¢	$51	2h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 16 history records