Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:50:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2C 0x2c56…923f crypto 308 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (162 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$17 (+3%) realized +$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate94%289W / 18L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day162.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (162 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 307 +1.2% -8.4% 94% 12% -7.9%
≤30d 307 +1.2% -8.4% 94% 12% -7.9%
≤90d 307 +1.2% -8.4% 94% 12% -7.9%
all 307 +1.2% -8.4% 94% 12% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover162.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.4% 12% -7.9%
10% ← realistic here -17.2% 6% -16.7%
15% -25.2% 3% -24.8%
20% -32.5% 1% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses289 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)307 / 308
History coverage2d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day162.1
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 307 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Up 96¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +48%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -71%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +16%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 7m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 32m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 32m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 37m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 42m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Down 8¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $3 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $3 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 19¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $3 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.07 · official $1.07 · 652 history records