Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:45:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
2C 0x2c54…7e41 sports 626 markets active 1h ago coverage 160d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$7,403 (-2%) realized −$7,384 · open −$19
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate56%351W / 273L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$515per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$202est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$519now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,095
7 days+$1,005
14 days+$1,233
30 days+$939
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$3,498
sports 35% −$4,530
crypto 0% −$306
world 0% −$428
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +0.6% -9.0% 47% 47% +13.1%
≤30d 55 +6.7% -3.4% 60% 60% -3.7%
≤90d 174 -8.1% -16.8% 55% 52% -22.8%
all 624 +0.3% -9.2% 56% 54% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 54% -12.0%
10% -17.9% 51% -20.4%
15% -25.9% 44% -28.1%
20% -33.1% 32% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$814) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$366 vs −$505 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$519
Realized−$7,384
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses351 / 273
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$202
Open positions2
Markets (closed)624 / 626
History coverage160d
Avg bet$515
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 624 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Yes 50¢ 100¢ $165 $328 +$163 (+99%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? No 42¢ 22¢ $373 $191 −$182 (-49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 227 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $477 +$565 +119%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $254 +$278 +109%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 17 $560 +$333 +60%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 16 $506 −$500 -99%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $295 +$287 +97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $504 +$384 +76%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 15 $154 −$150 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $105 −$102 -97%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $253 −$250 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $315 −$32 -10%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $442 +$298 +67%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 10 $102 −$100 -98%
ITF Varnamo: Oskar Brostrom Poulsen vs Sandro Kopp Jun 10 $15 +$5 +30%
Dart vs. Bencic: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 10 $25 −$4 -16%
Dart vs. Bencic: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 10 $31 −$7 -24%
Lyon: Pedro Martinez vs Felix Balshaw Jun 10 $155 −$153 -99%
ITF Madrid: Claudia Ferrer Perez vs Paula Cembranos Jun 10 $84 +$32 +38%
Will Togo vs. Benin end in a draw? Jun 10 $7 +$3 +46%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5) Jun 10 $351 +$107 +31%
Will Raja Club Athletic win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $301 +$329 +109%
Azerbaijan vs. San Marino: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $306 +$264 +86%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $85 −$84 -99%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 09 $334 +$216 +65%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 09 $427 +$351 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 08 $101 +$15 +15%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 08 $506 −$500 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-05? Jun 07 $152 +$120 +79%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-05? Jun 07 $301 +$52 +17%
Will Ehime FC win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $495 +$307 +62%
Will Kashima Antlers win on 2026-06-06? Jun 05 $348 −$343 -99%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $77 +$50 +65%
Will Ireland win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $152 +$167 +109%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5) Jun 05 $693 −$686 -99%
Anadolu Efes vs. Fenerbahce Jun 05 $490 −$485 -99%
Netherlands vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $809 +$468 +58%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $276 −$270 -98%
Will Tigres de la UANL win on 2026-05-30? Jun 02 $118 +$41 +34%
Will EC Bahia win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $82 −$81 -99%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $45 +$19 +42%
ITF Lakewood: Allison Wang vs Kailey Evans May 29 $75 +$57 +76%
Esenler Erokspor vs. Fenerbahce May 29 $259 +$55 +21%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $102 +$244 +239%
ITF Monastir: Loan Lestir vs Izan Almazan Valiente May 29 $8 +$2 +27%
ITF Oliva: Jenny Lim vs Victoria Pohle May 29 $25 +$8 +31%
Roland Garros ATP: Nuno Borges vs Andrey Rublev May 29 $332 −$325 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Tallon Griekspoor vs Matteo Arnaldi May 26 $930 +$531 +57%
Spread: Knicks (-9.5) May 25 $155 −$154 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Tereza Valentova vs Magda Linette May 24 $450 −$448 -100%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 23 $82 −$80 -97%
Gran Canaria vs. Manresa May 23 $293 +$239 +82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $56 48m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 42¢ $379 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $112 1h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY No 45¢ $477 3h
Norway leading at halftime? BUY Yes 62¢ $560 22h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 47¢ $254 22h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 59¢ $506 22h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $295 29h
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 0 New Zealand? BUY Yes 11¢ $154 45h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $504 47h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 0 Uruguay? BUY Yes $105 47h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $253 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 48¢ $162 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 53¢ $152 3d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $88 5d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $354 5d
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY Costa Rica 42¢ $102 6d
Lyon: Pedro Martinez vs Felix Balshaw BUY Pedro Martinez 61¢ $155 7d
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 76¢ $351 7d
Dart vs. Bencic: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Under 59¢ $25 7d
Dart vs. Bencic: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Under 65¢ $31 7d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 62¢ $12 8d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 62¢ $12 8d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 62¢ $12 8d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 62¢ $12 8d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 62¢ $36 8d
ITF Madrid: Claudia Ferrer Perez vs Paula Cembranos BUY Paula Cembranos 72¢ $84 8d
ITF Varnamo: Oskar Brostrom Poulsen vs Sandro Kopp BUY Sandro Kopp 76¢ $15 8d
Will Togo vs. Benin end in a draw? BUY No 68¢ $7 8d
Will Raja Club Athletic win on 2026-06-09? BUY No 47¢ $301 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $518.62 · official $749.52 · 1242 history records