Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:27:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2C 0x2c52…6431 sports 249 markets active 2h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$352 (-8%) realized −$352 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate42%104W / 145L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$59
7 days−$127
14 days−$115
30 days−$301
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$201
crypto 35% −$126
other 13% −$113
world 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 80 +4.5% -5.5% 54% 49% -13.0%
≤30d 104 -10.1% -18.7% 46% 40% -19.2%
≤90d 242 -6.4% -15.3% 42% 38% -17.6%
all 249 -4.7% -13.8% 42% 39% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 39% -17.5%
10% -22.0% 35% -25.4%
15% -29.6% 28% -32.6%
20% -36.5% 26% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$13 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$352
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses104 / 145
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions0
Markets (closed)249 / 249
History coverage91d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 249 Trades
no open positions (29 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$5 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $41 −$23 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $15 +$10 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$7 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$22 +447%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$14 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$15 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$2 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$17 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$24 -93%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $71 +$23 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +98%
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +25%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -10%
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $3 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$29 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$22 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$25 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $36 +$9 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$28 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 14 $56 −$55 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 14 $49 −$11 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 14 $27 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 14 $31 +$30 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $16 +$17 +109%
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 $0 -4%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $10 −$8 -80%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $42 +$7 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Down 34¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 17¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 777 history records