Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:50:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2C 0x2c51…6259 sports 192 markets active 6d ago coverage 157d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate18%35W / 157L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 29% −$4
other 28% −$2
politics 23% −$3
crypto 8% −$2
economics 4% $0
finance 3% +$1
world 3% +$4
culture 2% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 50% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 82 -0.1% -9.7% 21% 0% -9.6%
all 192 -0.1% -9.6% 18% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

157d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses35 / 157
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)192 / 192
History coverage157d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 192 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 11 $44 $0 -0%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 31 $34 $0 +0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $43 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $172 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $35 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 18 $86 $0 -0%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 17 $42 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $81 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $201 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? Apr 16 $40 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 15 $46 $0 -1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? Apr 15 $40 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 14 $77 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Apr 14 $43 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $44 $0 -0%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 13 $131 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $106 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 13 $90 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $136 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 12 $41 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $126 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $100 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Apr 11 $48 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 11 $137 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 10 $460 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 10 $35 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 10 $42 −$1 -1%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 09 $46 $0 +0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 09 $92 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $38 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 08 $264 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 07 $86 $0 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 07 $87 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Apr 07 $87 $0 -0%
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 07 $97 $0 -0%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 06 $124 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 06 $91 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 05 $112 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 05 $126 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 05 $88 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Apr 05 $315 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 04 $90 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April? Apr 04 $39 $0 -1%
Will the Columbus Blue Jackets win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 04 $40 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 03 $154 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 03 $96 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 03 $88 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 02 $44 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $40 by end of June? Apr 02 $47 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 01 $97 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 95¢ $44 5d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 95¢ $44 6d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $34 17d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $34 17d
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 95¢ $37 30d
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $37 30d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 97¢ $39 59d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 97¢ $39 60d
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 96¢ $35 60d
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 97¢ $35 60d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 97¢ $41 60d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 97¢ $41 60d
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 94¢ $46 60d
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 95¢ $46 61d
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 96¢ $42 61d
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 95¢ $42 61d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $47 61d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $47 61d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 95¢ $34 61d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 94¢ $34 62d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? SELL No 98¢ $40 62d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? BUY No 97¢ $40 62d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $34 62d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $34 63d
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $46 63d
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $46 63d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $45 63d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $45 63d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? SELL No 97¢ $40 63d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? BUY No 97¢ $40 63d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 684 history records